Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 38
Hymes is clearly favored to win: Hymes wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Miller (D)
12%
chance of winning
Hymes (R)
88%
- Average margin
- R+8.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hymes is clearly favored to win: Hymes wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Miller (D)
18%
chance of winning
Hymes (R)
82%
- Average margin
- R+8.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Benjamin C Hymes
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.11 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.38 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.38 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,095
- People per km²
- 16
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,993 votes · R+10.8✓ Benjamin C Hymes (R)55.4%
Stephen B Ellis (D)44.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,990 two-party votes · R+12.2 · R+10.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.1%
Kamala Harris (D)43.9%
2022
4,203 votes · R+19.1✓ Benjamin C Hymes (R)51.2%
Robyn M Stanicki (D)34.8%
Heather Elizabeth Garrold (G)13.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,217 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Barbara A Wood (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,826 two-party votes · R+9.7 · R+14.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.8%
Joe Biden (D)45.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,384 two-party votes · R+13.1 · R+15.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.5%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-33Michael A BraysonKenneth Wade Fredette>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-36Clifton Guy Foster IIIKimberly M HagganFlip risk79%Rep.52%Rep. HD-37Alan Lee OrcuttReagan L Paul78%Rep.66%Rep. HD-39Madison Crissey CookMichael J Nicholson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-40D. Michael RayJoseph M McLaughlin96%Dem.90%Dem. HD-63Taylor Marie WestPaul R Flynn90%Rep.81%Rep. HD-68—Amanda Noelle Collamore>99%Rep.>99%Rep.