Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 34
Guerin is very likely to win: Guerin wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McClymer (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Guerin (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+29.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Guerin is very likely to win: Guerin wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McClymer (D)
1%
chance of winning
Guerin (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+26.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Stacey K Guerin
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -27.25 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,139
- People per km²
- 46
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 76%of adults
- White 96%
- Hispanic 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,255 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Abigail W Griffin (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,322 two-party votes · R+30.9 · R+29.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.5%
Kamala Harris (D)34.5%
2022
4,251 votes · R+30.6✓ Abigail W Griffin (R)61.7%
Frank Lawrence Roma (D)32.8%
Donovan E Todd III (D)3.0%
Joshua James Pietrowicz (OTH)2.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,371 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Morgan J Rielly (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,130 two-party votes · R+28.0 · R+32.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.0%
Joe Biden (D)36.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,476 two-party votes · R+29.7 · R+31.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.1%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-22Laura D SupicaColleen T O'Neal>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-23Victoria P KornfieldBrian A Ames99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-24Sean F Faircloth—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-26James F DillEdward L Paradis97%Dem.89%Dem. HD-27Devan C ArnoldDavid Giles>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-32—Shawn L Lancaster>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-35Debora S FarnhamJames E Thorne>99%Rep.99%Rep.