Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 85
Paul is favored to win: Paul wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Welch (D)
20%
chance of winning
Paul (R)
80%
- Average margin
- R+6.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Paul is favored to win: Paul wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Welch (D)
36%
chance of winning
Paul (R)
64%
- Average margin
- R+3.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Adrienne Paul
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.24 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,548
- People per km²
- 21
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 59%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
3,865 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Kimberly Pomerleau (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,997 two-party votes · R+7.1 · R+5.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.5%
Kamala Harris (D)46.5%
2022
4,246 votes · R+9.9✓ Kimberly J Pomerleau (R)54.9%
Christopher V Struebing (D)45.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,493 votes · D+20.4✓ Donna R Doore (D)60.2%
William L Clardy (R)39.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,798 two-party votes · R+4.0 · R+8.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.0%
Joe Biden (D)48.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,075 two-party votes · R+14.2 · R+16.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.9%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-84Cassandra Anne DoveMark Walker98%Rep.93%Rep. HD-86Abigail N GeerRolf A Olsen Jr.Flip riskFlip risk51%Dem.53%Dem. HD-106Bradley M YoungsBarbara BagshawD flipD flip66%Dem.78%Dem. HD-107Joseph A CampbellMark C CooperD flipD flip78%Dem.77%Dem. HD-108Parnell W TerryKelly L Dearborn>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-109Seven R SiegelDiana Kushnar>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-138Oliver D McAvoyJonathan Lee Kinney95%Rep.89%Rep.