Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 37
Paul is favored to win: Paul wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Orcutt (D)
22%
chance of winning
Paul (R)
78%
- Average margin
- R+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Paul is favored to win: Paul wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Orcutt (D)
34%
chance of winning
Paul (R)
66%
- Average margin
- R+3.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Reagan L Paul
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.27 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.43 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.43 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,178
- People per km²
- 27
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,969 votes · R+9.6✓ Reagan L Paul (R)54.8%
Scott William Cuddy (D)45.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,027 two-party votes · R+5.9 · R+4.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.0%
Kamala Harris (D)47.0%
2022
5,003 votes · R+4.7✓ Reagan L Paul (R)52.3%
Margaret D English-Flanagan (D)47.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
3,686 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Grayson B Lookner (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,737 two-party votes · R+4.4 · R+9.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.2%
Joe Biden (D)47.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,066 two-party votes · R+8.7 · R+10.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.6%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-16Nina Azella MillikenEric M White>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-17Ronald B RussellSteven Matthew BishopFlip riskFlip risk58%Dem.57%Dem. HD-19David UlrichRichard H Campbell98%Rep.93%Rep. HD-36Clifton Guy Foster IIIKimberly M HagganFlip risk79%Rep.52%Rep. HD-38Kayla M.T. MillerBenjamin C Hymes88%Rep.82%Rep. HD-39Madison Crissey CookMichael J Nicholson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-40D. Michael RayJoseph M McLaughlin96%Dem.90%Dem.