Florida Governor
Governor · Florida
Byron Donalds held the seat for Republicans, winning by 1.3 points over David Jolly.
Source: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections unofficial results; race call: civicAPIUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Jolly compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 65 of 67 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Osceola, +19.2 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 59 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Donalds ahead by 4.1. Donalds won by 1.3: a 2.8-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Jolly ahead
- Poll with Donalds ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jolly | Donalds | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | Oct 31–Nov 2 | 450 LV | 44 | 48 | R+4 | R+4.8 | −2.7 | A | researchco.ca ↗ |
| ActiVote | Oct 20–Oct 31 | 400 LV | 47.7 | 52.3 | R+4.6 | — | −3.3 | A− | activote.net ↗ |
| Big Data Poll for 1776 Law Center, Public Polling Projectfield: Jolly, Jewett, Dimanche, Datto, Russo, Abrams, Donalds · in average | Oct 26–Oct 30 | 1,067 LV | 44.2 | 47.4 | R+3.2 | R+3.5 | −1.9 | C | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| Big Data Poll for 1776 Law Center, Public Polling Projectfield: Jolly, Jewett, Dimanche, Datto, Russo, Abrams, Donalds | Oct 26–Oct 30 | 1,122 RV | 43.6 | 46.5 | R+2.9 | — | −1.6 | C | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Oct 26–Oct 30 | 858 LV | 45 | 51 | R+6 | R+3.0 | −4.7 | C+ | stetson.edu ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 28–Oct 29 | 1,200 LV | 44.9 | 49 | R+4.1 | R+3.0 | −2.8 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research | Oct 26–Oct 29 | 1,014 LV | 43 | 50 | R+7 | — | −5.7 | D | targoz.com ↗ |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | Oct 26–Oct 28 | 500 LV | 38.8 | 40.3 | R+1.5 | — | −0.2 | D | palafoxproductions.com ↗ |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | Oct 25–Oct 27 | 916 LV | 45.5 | 47.8 | R+2.3 | R+5.4 | −1.0 | B | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 19–Oct 25 | 813 LV | 44.43 | 48.36 | R+3.9 | R+4.7 | −2.6 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | Oct 16–Oct 23 | 515 LV | 44 | 50 | R+6 | — | −4.7 | A | netchoice.org ↗ |
| Workbench Strategy for Angie Nixon's campaignD-sponsored | Oct 18–Oct 22 | 800 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 | — | +3.3 | — | politico.com ↗ |
| co/efficient | Oct 18–Oct 20 | 1,014 LV | 40 | 49 | R+9 | — | −7.7 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| ActiVote | Oct 1–Oct 19 | 400 LV | 48.3 | 51.7 | R+3.4 | — | −2.1 | A− | activote.net ↗ |
| University of North Florida | Oct 12–Oct 19 | 1,471 LV | 47 | 49 | R+2 | — | −0.7 | B+ | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| YouGov for Univision | Oct 2–Oct 15 | 825 RV | 42 | 50 | R+8 | — | −6.7 | B | univision.com ↗ |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for Byron Donalds's campaignR-sponsoredMain question · in average | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 1,200 LV | 39 | 46 | R+7 | — | −5.7 | B+ | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for Byron Donalds's campaignR-sponsoredOther version | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 1,200 LV | 43 | 49 | R+6 | — | −4.7 | B+ | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USA | Oct 8–Oct 10 | 920 LV | 47 | 47 | Even | — | +1.3 | B+ | changeresearch.com ↗ |
| MDW Communications for EDGE Communications | Oct 4–Oct 10 | 2,351 LV | 43.8 | 45.9 | R+2.1 | — | −0.8 | — | mdwcomm.com ↗ |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Oct 1–Oct 9 | 716 LV | 41 | 52 | R+11 | — | −9.7 | C+ | stetson.edu ↗ |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | Oct 5–Oct 7 | 836 LV | 44.6 | 44.7 | R+0.1 | — | +1.2 | B | stpetepolls.org ↗ |
| YouGov | Sep 28–Oct 5 | 3,813 LV | 45 | 47 | R+2 | — | −0.7 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison InstituteMain question · in average | Sep 28–Oct 4 | 849 LV | 42 | 52 | R+10 | — | −8.7 | D | jamesmadison.org ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison InstituteMain question | Sep 28–Oct 4 | 1,174 RV | 39 | 48 | R+9 | — | −7.7 | D | jamesmadison.org ↗ |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. for NBC 6 Miami, Telemundo | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 625 LV | 41 | 48 | R+7 | — | −5.7 | A | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USA | Sep 25–Sep 27 | 1,063 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 | — | +3.3 | B+ | changeresearch.com ↗ |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Sep 14–Sep 21 | 830 LV | 39 | 51 | R+12 | — | −10.7 | C+ | stetson.edu ↗ |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | Sep 15–Sep 17 | 913 LV | 43.4 | 43.5 | R+0.1 | — | +1.2 | B | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USA | Sep 7–Sep 9 | 1,107 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | — | +4.3 | B+ | changeresearch.com ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates for Democratic Governors AssociationD-sponsored | Aug 10–Aug 13 | 600 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 | — | +2.3 | — | democraticgovernors.org ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison InstituteMain question · in average | Jul 20–Jul 26 | 1,026 LV | 38 | 45 | R+7 | — | −5.7 | D | jamesmadison.org ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison InstituteMain question | Jul 20–Jul 26 | 1,338 RV | 36 | 40 | R+4 | — | −2.7 | D | jamesmadison.org ↗ |
| University of North Florida | Jul 8–Jul 17 | 848 LV | 41.4 | 46.1 | R+4.7 | — | −3.4 | B+ | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Kaplan Strategies for Frank Russo's campaign | Jun 8–Jun 9 | 668 LV | 29.8 | 34.9 | R+5.1 | — | −3.8 | — | prnewswire.com ↗ |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USAMain question · in average | May 13–May 16 | 1,593 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 | — | +5.3 | B+ | changeresearch.com ↗ |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USAMain question | May 13–May 16 | 2,070 RV | 41 | 43 | R+2 | — | −0.7 | B+ | changeresearch.com ↗ |
| Cherry Communications for Florida Chamber of CommerceR-sponsored | May 1–May 9 | 604 LV | 39 | 47 | R+8 | — | −6.7 | B− | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Mar 25–Apr 13 | 848 LV | 40 | 47 | R+7 | — | −5.7 | C+ | www2.stetson.edu ↗ |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | Apr 3–Apr 9 | 406 LV | 43 | 49 | R+6 | — | −4.7 | A | netchoice.org ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 2, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- David Jolly
- 25%
- Byron Donalds
- 75%
- Projected margin
- R+3.7
The candidates
U.S. representative for FL-19 (2021–present)David Jolly (D)
Former Republican U.S. representative from Florida's 13th congressional district (2014–2017)
Also on the ballot: Scott Eckhard Jewett (Libertarian), 0.5%; Frank J. Russo (Nonpartisan), 0.3%; Charles Burkett (Nonpartisan), 0.2%; Dean Ocean Abrams (Nonpartisan), 0.2%; Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto (Nonpartisan), 0.1%; Moliere "Moe" Dimanche (Nonpartisan), 0.1%; Morris / Alaways (Other party), 0.0%; Anderson / Nokovich (Other party), 0.0%
Also on this ballot here
| U.S. Senate (special) | R+2.9 |
| Attorney General | R+1.8 |
| Treasurer | R+1.9 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections and civicAPI (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Donalds.