U.S. Senate in Florida (special)
U.S. Senate · Florida
Ashley Moody won re-election by 2.9 points over Angie Nixon.
Source: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections unofficial results; race call: civicAPIUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Nixon compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 65 of 67 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Osceola, +19.8 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 59 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| New Deal for All, Inc.Against Moody | $3.1M | |
| AB PACFor Nixon | $2.6M | |
| TD PACFor Nixon | $1.2M | |
| STRONGER SAFER NATIONFor Moody, against Nixon | $677.5K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Nixon | $630K | |
| National Nurses United for Patient ProtectionFor Nixon | $322.4K | |
| BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PACAgainst Moody | $250K | |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDFor Moody | $249.3K | |
| SEIU COPE (Service Employees International Union Committee On Political Education)For Nixon, against Moody | $241.4K | |
| Working Families Party PACFor Nixon | $200K | |
| GREAT OPPORTUNITY PAC, INC.For Moody | $185.7K | |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action CommitteeFor Moody | $114.6K | |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTIONFor Moody | $97.3K |
Show 5 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Moody ahead by 6.0. Moody won by 2.9: a 3.1-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Nixon ahead
- Poll with Moody ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Nixon | Moody | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | Oct 31–Nov 2 | 450 LV | 44 | 51 | R+7 | R+7.9 | −4.1 | A | researchco.ca ↗ |
| Big Data Poll for 1776 Law Center, Public Polling Projectfield: Nixon, Gillespie, Moody · in average | Oct 26–Oct 30 | 1,067 LV | 44.7 | 51.6 | R+6.9 | R+7.2 | −4.0 | C | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| Big Data Poll for 1776 Law Center, Public Polling Projectfield: Nixon, Gillespie, Moody | Oct 26–Oct 30 | 1,122 RV | 44.5 | 50.9 | R+6.4 | — | −3.5 | C | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Oct 26–Oct 30 | 859 LV | 45 | 49 | R+4 | R+1.0 | −1.1 | C+ | stetson.edu ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 28–Oct 29 | 1,200 LV | 42.7 | 48.5 | R+5.8 | R+5.0 | −2.9 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research | Oct 26–Oct 29 | 1,013 LV | 43 | 52 | R+9 | — | −6.1 | D | targoz.com ↗ |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | Oct 26–Oct 28 | 500 LV | 35.8 | 41.8 | R+6 | — | −3.1 | D | palafoxproductions.com ↗ |
| ActiVote | Oct 17–Oct 27 | 400 LV | 47 | 53 | R+6 | — | −3.1 | A− | activote.net ↗ |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | Oct 25–Oct 27 | 916 LV | 44.7 | 49 | R+4.3 | R+7.5 | −1.4 | B | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 19–Oct 25 | 813 LV | 44.32 | 50.35 | R+6 | R+6.8 | −3.1 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | Oct 16–Oct 23 | 515 LV | 43 | 51 | R+8 | — | −5.1 | A | netchoice.org ↗ |
| Workbench Strategy for Angie Nixon's campaignD-sponsored | Oct 18–Oct 22 | 800 LV | 47 | 49 | R+2 | — | +0.9 | — | politico.com ↗ |
| co/efficient | Oct 18–Oct 20 | 1,014 LV | 40 | 48 | R+8 | — | −5.1 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| University of North Florida | Oct 12–Oct 19 | 1,471 LV | 45 | 49 | R+4 | — | −1.1 | B+ | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| ActiVote | Sep 27–Oct 15 | 400 LV | 46.9 | 53.1 | R+6.2 | — | −3.3 | A− | activote.net ↗ |
| MDW Communications for EDGE Communications | Oct 4–Oct 10 | 2,351 LV | 42.4 | 47.6 | R+5.2 | — | −2.3 | — | mdwcomm.com ↗ |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Oct 1–Oct 9 | 716 LV | 41 | 52 | R+11 | — | −8.1 | C+ | stetson.edu ↗ |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | Oct 5–Oct 7 | 836 LV | 44.9 | 46.8 | R+1.9 | — | +1.0 | B | stpetepolls.org ↗ |
| YouGov | Sep 28–Oct 5 | 3,812 LV | 44 | 49 | R+5 | — | −2.1 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison InstituteMain question · in average | Sep 28–Oct 4 | 847 LV | 42 | 52 | R+10 | — | −7.1 | D | jamesmadison.org ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison InstituteMain question | Sep 28–Oct 4 | 1,171 RV | 38 | 50 | R+12 | — | −9.1 | D | jamesmadison.org ↗ |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. for NBC 6 Miami, Telemundo | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 625 LV | 40 | 50 | R+10 | — | −7.1 | A | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USA | Sep 25–Sep 27 | 1,063 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | — | +1.9 | B+ | changeresearch.com ↗ |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Sep 14–Sep 21 | 830 LV | 40 | 51 | R+11 | — | −8.1 | C+ | stetson.edu ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 20–Sep 21 | 600 LV | 41.8 | 49.3 | R+7.5 | — | −4.6 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | Sep 15–Sep 17 | 913 LV | 44.8 | 45.2 | R+0.4 | — | +2.5 | B | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 8–Sep 10 | 733 LV | 43 | 50.4 | R+7.4 | — | −4.5 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USA | Sep 7–Sep 9 | 1,107 LV | 47 | 47 | Even | — | +2.9 | B+ | changeresearch.com ↗ |
| University of North Florida | Jul 8–Jul 17 | 848 LV | 41.6 | 50 | R+8.4 | — | −5.5 | B+ | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Mar 25–Apr 13 | 414 LV | 38 | 51 | R+13 | — | −10.1 | C+ | www2.stetson.edu ↗ |
| Emerson College | Mar 29–Mar 31 | 1,125 LV | 36.3 | 47.3 | R+11 | — | −8.1 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| University of North Florida | Feb 21–Mar 2 | 768 LV | 38 | 46 | R+8 | — | −5.1 | B+ | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 2, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Angie Nixon
- 17%
- Ashley Moody
- 83%
- Projected margin
- R+5.1
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. senator (2025–present)Angie Nixon (D)
State representative from the 13th district (2020–present)
Also on the ballot: Neil J. Gillespie (Nonpartisan), 1.1%
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | R+1.3 |
| Attorney General | R+1.8 |
| Treasurer | R+1.9 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections and civicAPI (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Moody.