2020Final results
2020 election for President in Arizona
President · Arizona
Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D) won with 49.4% of the vote, defeating Donald J. Trump (R) by 0.3 points.
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Democrat · winner
49.4%1,672,143
Donald J. TrumpRepublican
49.1%1,661,686
Jo JorgensenLibertarian
1.5%51,465
3,385,294 votes
Source: MIT Election Data and Science LabUpdated Oct 1, 2026, 10:09 AM ET
The seat over time
D − R margin in this seat's races around 2020
Races before and after
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Polls against the result
- Poll with Biden ahead
- Poll with Trump ahead
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Biden | Trump | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | Oct 31 | 409 | 50 | 47 | D+3 | — | +2.7 | B+ | Wikipedia |
| Marist University | Oct 31 | 717 | 48 | 48 | Even | — | −0.3 | B+ | Wikipedia |
| AtlasIntel | Oct 30 | 641 | 48.1 | 50.4 | R+2.3 | — | −2.6 | A | Wikipedia |
| Emerson College | Oct 30 | 732 | 48 | 45.9 | D+2.1 | — | +1.8 | A+ | Wikipedia |
| Ipsos | Oct 30 | 610 | 50 | 47 | D+3 | — | +2.7 | B+ | Wikipedia |
| Data for Progress | Oct 29 | 1,195 | 50 | 47 | D+3 | — | +2.7 | B | Wikipedia |
| Data Orbital | Oct 29 | 550 | 45.9 | 45.3 | D+0.6 | — | +0.3 | A− | Wikipedia |
| Swayable | Oct 29 | 360 | 50.6 | 45.7 | D+4.9 | — | +4.6 | C+ | Wikipedia |
| Rasmussen Reports | Oct 28 | 800 | 45 | 49 | R+4 | — | −4.3 | B+ | Wikipedia |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Oct 28 | 889 | 50 | 46 | D+4 | — | +3.7 | C− | Wikipedia |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 28 | 1,252 | 49 | 43 | D+6 | — | +5.7 | A | Wikipedia |
| Gravis Marketing | Oct 27 | 704 | 48 | 44 | D+4 | — | +3.7 | B− | Wikipedia |
| SSRS | Oct 27 | 865 | 50 | 46 | D+4 | — | +3.7 | C | Wikipedia |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Oct 27 | 1,002 | 46.4 | 48.9 | R+2.5 | — | −2.8 | B | Wikipedia |
| Morning Consult | Oct 26 | 1,059 | 48.4 | 46.1 | D+2.3 | — | +2.0 | C | Wikipedia |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 26 | 4,278 | 52 | 46 | D+6 | — | +5.7 | C− | Wikipedia |
| Swayable | Oct 25 | 304 | 52.4 | 43.8 | D+8.6 | — | +8.3 | C+ | Wikipedia |
| Ipsos | Oct 24 | 714 | 47 | 47 | Even | — | −0.3 | B+ | Wikipedia |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Oct 24 | 716 | 49 | 46 | D+3 | — | +2.7 | A | Wikipedia |
| The Justice Collaborative Institute | Oct 24 | 1,007 | 49 | 43 | D+6 | — | +5.7 | C | Wikipedia |
| Patinkin Research StrategiesD-sponsored | Oct 23 | 729 | 52 | 45 | D+7 | — | +6.7 | C+ | Wikipedia |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. | Oct 21 | 500 | 46.2 | 46.6 | R+0.4 | — | −0.7 | B | Wikipedia |
| Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | Oct 21 | 725 | 50 | 45 | D+5 | — | +4.7 | C+ | Wikipedia |
| Y2 Analytics | Oct 19 | 700 | 50 | 47 | D+3 | — | +2.7 | A− | Wikipedia |
| Change Research | Oct 18 | 232 | 51 | 45 | D+6 | — | +5.7 | B+ | Wikipedia |
| Ipsos | Oct 18 | 658 | 50 | 46 | D+4 | — | +3.7 | B+ | Wikipedia |
| Rasmussen Reports | Oct 18 | 800 | 48 | 46 | D+2 | — | +1.7 | B+ | Wikipedia |
| Data Orbital | Oct 17 | 550 | 47.1 | 41.9 | D+5.2 | — | +4.9 | A− | Wikipedia |
| RMG Research | Oct 16 | 800 | 47 | 46 | D+1 | — | +0.7 | B+ | Wikipedia |
| Morning Consult | Oct 15 | 1,066 | 47 | 48 | R+1 | — | −1.3 | C | Wikipedia |
| YouGov | Oct 15 | 1,074 | 50 | 47 | D+3 | — | +2.7 | B | Wikipedia |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Oct 12 | 750 | 48 | 45 | D+3 | — | +2.7 | C− | Wikipedia |
| Ipsos | Oct 11 | 667 | 49 | 47 | D+2 | — | +1.7 | B+ | Wikipedia |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | Oct 11 | 502 | 49 | 47 | D+2 | — | +1.7 | A− | Wikipedia |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Oct 9 | 720 | 48 | 46 | D+2 | — | +1.7 | C− | Wikipedia |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Oct 7 | 1,087 | 43.8 | 47.8 | R+4 | — | −4.3 | B | Wikipedia |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Oct 6 | 608 | 49 | 45 | D+4 | — | +3.7 | A | Wikipedia |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Oct 6 | 727 | 49 | 43 | D+6 | — | +5.7 | C− | Wikipedia |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 5 | 5,945 | 53 | 45 | D+8 | — | +7.7 | C− | Wikipedia |
| Basswood ResearchR-sponsored | Oct 4 | 800 | 47.8 | 47.9 | R+0.1 | — | −0.4 | C− | Wikipedia |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via FiveThirtyEight poll listsUpdated Oct 31, 2020