North Star Opinion Research
North Star Opinion Research has 12 polls in our database and is rated on 17 past polls scored against results (1998–2024).
Rated polls
171998–2024
Average miss
5.1All pollsters: 6.8
Lean
R+0.5Against other polls of the same races
Picked winner
71%Of rated polls
Last poll
Mar 17, 2025Presidential approval
Every rated poll against the result
Each dot is one poll from the last three weeks of a race: how far its margin landed from the result. Above the line it overstated Democrats; below, Republicans. Bars show each cycle’s average lean.
- Poll
- Cycle average
17 rated polls; misses beyond 15 points are drawn at the edge. Source: 99chambers pollster ratings and polls databaseUpdated Oct 22, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
By type of race
| Race type | Rated polls | Avg. miss | All pollsters | Lean | Picked winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | 8 | 7.1 | 5.5 | D+1.3 | 75% |
| President | 6 | 4.0 | 4.4 | D+2.0 | 67% |
| Generic ballot | 1 | 1.1 | 4.3 | R+1.1 | 0% |
| Governor | 1 | 1.0 | 5.7 | R+1.0 | 100% |
| House | 1 | 3.1 | 6.8 | R+3.1 | 100% |
Avg. miss: green where it beats all pollsters’ average for that type. Source: 99chambers pollster ratings and polls databaseUpdated Oct 22, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
Among all pollsters
Average miss of every rated pollster, in points. North Star Opinion Research is marked; darker bars are pollsters with a smaller miss.
Source: 99chambers pollster ratings and polls databaseUpdated Oct 22, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
Recent polls
All 12 in the database| Dates | Question | Sample | Result | Margin | vs result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13–17, 2025 | Presidential approval for Defending Democracy Together | 1,000 RV | 46 / 51 | −5 | — | Release |
| Oct 22–26, 2024 | 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania (2024) for American Greatness | 600 LV | Jr. 45 · McCormick 42 | D+3 | — | Release |
| Jul 6–10, 2024 | 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin (2024) for American Greatness | 600 LV | Baldwin 49 · Hovde 41 | D+8 | — | Release |
| Jun 17–20, 2024 | 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona (2024) for American Greatness | 600 LV | Gallego 39 · Lake 38 | D+1 | — | Release |
| May 29–Jun 2, 2024 | 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election (2024) for American Greatness | 600 LV | Stein 42 · Robinson 44 | R+2 | — | Release |
| Oct 17–25, 2020 | 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona (2020) | 725 RV | Kelly 51 · McSally 39 | D+12 | — | Release |
| Oct 17–25, 2020 | 2020 United States Senate election in Texas (2020) | 758 RV | Hegar 40 · Cornyn 45 | R+5 | — | Release |
| Jul 26–28, 2020 | 2020 Georgia's 6th congressional district election (2020) for the NRCC | 400 RV | McBath 48 · Handel 46 | D+2 | — | Release |
| Mar 15–17, 2020 | 2020 Georgia's 6th congressional district election (2020) | 400 RV | McBath 47 · Handel 49 | R+2 | — | Release |
| Oct 22–24, 2016 | 2016 Nebraska's 2nd congressional district election (2016) | 400 V | Ashford 44 · Bacon 48 | R+4 | — | Release |
Latest poll ended Mar 17, 2025. Source: each poll’s own release, via the 99chambers polls database
Who it polls for
Sponsors of its polls since 2016, by share of polls.
41% of its polls were paid for by candidates or party committees.
Source: 99chambers pollster ratings and polls databaseUpdated Oct 22, 2026, 3:55 AM ET