Data Orbital
Data Orbital has 17 polls in our database and is rated on 25 past polls scored against results (2016–2024).
Rated polls
252016–2024
Average miss
2.9All pollsters: 6.8
Lean
R+0.6Against other polls of the same races
Picked winner
80%Of rated polls
Last poll
Oct 28, 20242024 United States Senate election in Arizona (2024)
Every rated poll against the result
Each dot is one poll from the last three weeks of a race: how far its margin landed from the result. Above the line it overstated Democrats; below, Republicans. Bars show each cycle’s average lean.
- Poll
- Cycle average
25 rated polls; misses beyond 10 points are drawn at the edge. Source: 99chambers pollster ratings and polls databaseUpdated Oct 22, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
By type of race
| Race type | Rated polls | Avg. miss | All pollsters | Lean | Picked winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | 15 | 2.9 | 5.5 | D+1.3 | 93% |
| President | 6 | 2.3 | 4.4 | D+0.2 | 100% |
| Governor | 4 | 3.8 | 5.7 | R+3.8 | 0% |
Avg. miss: green where it beats all pollsters’ average for that type. Source: 99chambers pollster ratings and polls databaseUpdated Oct 22, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
Among all pollsters
Average miss of every rated pollster, in points. Data Orbital is marked; darker bars are pollsters with a smaller miss.
Source: 99chambers pollster ratings and polls databaseUpdated Oct 22, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
Recent polls
All 17 in the database| Dates | Question | Sample | Result | Margin | vs result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26–28, 2024 | 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona (2024) | 550 LV | Gallego 45 · Lake 45 | Even | — | Release |
| Apr 27–29, 2024 | 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona (2024) | 550 LV | Gallego 48 · Lake 44 | D+4 | — | Release |
| Nov 4–6, 2022 | 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona (2022) | 550 LV | Kelly 48 · Masters 47 | D+1 | — | Release |
| Nov 4–6, 2022 | 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election (2022) | 550 LV | Hobbs 47 · Lake 50 | R+3 | — | Release |
| Oct 17–19, 2022 | 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election (2022) | 550 LV | Hobbs 44 · Lake 47 | R+3 | — | Release |
| Feb 11–13, 2022 | 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election (2022) | 1,000 LV | Hobbs 41 · Lake 43 | R+2 | — | Release |
| Oct 28–30, 2020 | 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona (2020) | 550 LV | Kelly 47 · McSally 46 | D+1 | — | Release |
| Oct 16–18, 2020 | 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona (2020) | 550 LV | Kelly 48 · McSally 42 | D+6 | — | Release |
| Oct 3–5, 2020 | 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona (2020) | 550 LV | Kelly 49 · McSally 44 | D+5 | — | Release |
| Jun 27–29, 2020 | 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona (2020) | 600 LV | Kelly 50 · McSally 43 | D+7 | — | Release |
Latest poll ended Oct 28, 2024. Source: each poll’s own release, via the 99chambers polls database
Who it polls for
Sponsors of its polls since 2016, by share of polls.
35% of its polls were paid for by candidates or party committees.
Source: 99chambers pollster ratings and polls databaseUpdated Oct 22, 2026, 3:55 AM ET