U.S. Senate in Maine
U.S. Senate · Maine
Troy Jackson flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 6.1 points over Susan Collins.
Ranked-choice voting for Congress
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 2:10 AM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Jackson compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 4 of 16 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Aroostook, −5.2 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 8 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| WinSenateFor Jackson, against Collins | $38.1M | |
| PINE TREE RESULTS PACAgainst Jackson | $20.3M | |
| THE MAINE STANDARDAgainst Jackson | $9.9M | |
| CFFE PACFor Jackson | $5M | |
| STRONGER MAINEFor Collins, against Jackson | $4.8M | |
| Lead Maine Committee, Inc.For Collins, against Jackson | $2.8M | |
| America PACFor Collins, against Jackson | $2.3M | |
| Government That Works PACFor Jackson | $1.6M | |
| Planned Parenthood VotesAgainst Collins | $1.3M | |
| AB PACAgainst Collins | $830.9K | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Collins | $771K | |
| Reproductive Freedom For All Freedom FundAgainst Collins | $489.8K | |
| AB PACFor Collins | $575 |
Show 5 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Jackson ahead by 3.4. Jackson won by 6.1: a 2.7-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Jackson ahead
- Poll with Collins ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jackson | Collins | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 27–Nov 1 | 714 LV | 50.9 | 45 | D+5.9 | D+5.4 | −0.2 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 31–Nov 1 | 600 LV | 49.4 | 50.6 | R+1.2 | R+0.6 | −7.3 | A+ | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| AtlasIntel | Oct 28–Nov 1 | 967 LV | 53.1 | 44 | D+9.1 | D+6.5 | +3.0 | A | pollstergraph.com ↗ |
| Survey 160Main question · in average | Oct 27–Nov 1 | 1,322 LV | 50 | 47 | D+3 | — | −3.1 | — | survey160.com ↗ |
| Survey 160Main question | Oct 27–Nov 1 | 1,334 RV | 49 | 47 | D+2 | — | −4.1 | — | survey160.com ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | Oct 27–Oct 31 | 1,633 LV | 54 | 45 | D+9 | D+7.3 | +2.9 | C | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| YouGov | Oct 26–Oct 29 | 1,501 LV | 52 | 47 | D+5 | D+4.3 | −1.1 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Data for Progress | Oct 23–Oct 27 | 652 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 | — | −1.1 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| SSRS for CNN | Oct 20–Oct 26 | 783 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 | — | −2.1 | C | edition.cnn.com ↗ |
| Marist UniversityMain question | Oct 22–Oct 25 | 1,449 RV | 53 | 44 | D+9 | — | +2.9 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Marist UniversityMain question · in average | Oct 22–Oct 25 | 1,449 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 | D+1.3 | −4.1 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Oct 21–Oct 23 | 1,077 LV | 46.5 | 47 | R+0.5 | — | −6.6 | B | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | Oct 16–Oct 23 | 413 LV | 51 | 44 | D+7 | — | +0.9 | A | netchoice.org ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question | Oct 16–Oct 20 | 1,689 RV | 50 | 48 | D+2 | — | −4.1 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question · in average | Oct 16–Oct 20 | 1,514 LV | 49 | 49 | Even | — | −6.1 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 13–Oct 14 | 1,200 LV | 49.3 | 46.8 | D+2.5 | — | −3.6 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| Suffolk University | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 500 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 | — | −4.1 | A | suffolk.edu ↗ |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | Sep 30–Oct 5 | 800 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | — | −2.1 | A− | washingtonpost.com ↗ |
| Marist University | Oct 1–Oct 4 | 1,505 RV | 51 | 47 | D+4 | — | −2.1 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Sep 29–Oct 1 | 1,091 LV | 46.2 | 45.9 | D+0.3 | — | −5.8 | B | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| YouGov for CBS News | Sep 23–Oct 1 | 1,136 LV | 50 | 50 | Even | — | −6.1 | B | cbsnews.com ↗ |
| co/efficient | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 1,240 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | — | −8.1 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Maine People's Resource Center | Sep 25–Sep 29 | 684 LV | 49.3 | 46.5 | D+2.8 | — | −3.3 | B+ | drive.google.com ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 22–Sep 23 | 1,200 LV | 46.4 | 45.6 | D+0.8 | — | −5.3 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP | Sep 20–Sep 22 | 982 LV | 50 | 47 | D+3 | — | −3.1 | B | aarp.org ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University for Portland Press Herald | Sep 15–Sep 22 | 619 LV | 45.92 | 48.66 | R+2.7 | — | −8.8 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 1,301 LV | 51 | 47 | D+4 | — | −2.1 | C | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 621 LV | 47.4 | 47.6 | R+0.2 | — | −6.3 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | Aug 28–Sep 14 | 650 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 | — | −1.1 | B | uml.edu ↗ |
| YouGovMain question · in average | Sep 2–Sep 8 | 1,335 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 | — | −2.1 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| YouGovMain question | Sep 2–Sep 8 | 1,378 RV | 46 | 44 | D+2 | — | −4.1 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| SSRS for CNN | Aug 31–Sep 6 | 880 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | — | −3.1 | C | cnn.com ↗ |
| Abacus DataMain question · in average | Aug 26–Aug 28 | 327 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8 | — | +1.9 | — | abacusdata.ca ↗ |
| Abacus DataMain question | Aug 26–Aug 28 | 499 RV | 40 | 40 | Even | — | −6.1 | — | abacusdata.ca ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News | Aug 6–Aug 10 | 1,000 RV | 48 | 46 | D+2 | — | −4.1 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates for Senate Majority PACD-sponsored | Jul 27–Aug 1 | 802 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 | — | −2.1 | — | drive.google.com ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 15–Jul 20 | 1,178 LV | 49 | 46 | D+3 | — | −3.1 | C | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for Graham Platner's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 7–Jul 7 | 785 RV | 49 | 44 | D+5 | — | −1.1 | B+ | politico.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Troy Jackson
- 76%
- Susan Collins
- 24%
- Projected margin
- D+3.5
The candidates
Former president of the Maine Senate (2018–2024), candidate for ME-02 in 2014, and candidate for governor in 2026Susan Collins (R)
Incumbent U.S. senator (1997–present)
Also on the ballot: Write-in (Nonpartisan), 0.1%
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | D+16.9 |
Results within this state. Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 5, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Jackson.