U.S. Senate in Iowa
U.S. Senate · Iowa
Josh Turek flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 4.1 points over Ashley Hinson.
Source: Iowa Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Turek compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 99 of 99 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Wapello, +25.0 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 91 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| WinSenateFor Turek, against Hinson | $47.7M | |
| Lower Costs NowFor Turek, against Hinson | $20.5M | |
| VoteVetsFor Turek, against Hinson | $19.6M | |
| FIGHT ON IOWAFor Hinson, against Turek | $14.7M | |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE ActionFor Hinson, against Turek | $14.3M | |
| AB PACAgainst Hinson | $4.3M | |
| Win it Back PACAgainst Turek | $3.8M | |
| Government That Works PACFor Turek | $3.3M | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Hinson | $3.1M | |
| America PACAgainst Turek | $2.9M | |
| American Meat Producers PACAgainst Hinson | $2.7M |
Show 3 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Turek ahead by 0.9. Turek won by 4.1: a 3.2-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Turek ahead
- Poll with Hinson ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Turek | Hinson | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 26–Nov 1 | 705 LV | 47.6 | 46.9 | D+0.7 | Even | −3.4 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| AtlasIntel | Oct 28–Nov 1 | 1,219 LV | 50.5 | 46.4 | D+4.1 | D+1.4 | 0.0 | A | pollstergraph.com ↗ |
| GrayHouse | Oct 28–Oct 31 | 601 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | D+0.8 | −6.1 | — | grayhouse.com ↗ |
| YouGov | Oct 26–Oct 29 | 2,016 LV | 50 | 49 | D+1 | D+0.3 | −3.1 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| co/efficientMain question · in average | Oct 28–Oct 28 | 1,020 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | D+2.1 | −6.1 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| co/efficientfield: Turek, Laehn, Hinson | Oct 28–Oct 28 | 1,020 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | — | −6.1 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Echelon Insights | Oct 16–Oct 23 | 403 LV | 45 | 43 | D+2 | — | −2.1 | A | netchoice.org ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 21–Oct 22 | 1,200 LV | 45.5 | 47 | R+1.5 | R+0.3 | −5.6 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| co/efficient | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 863 LV | 45 | 48 | R+3 | — | −7.1 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Oct 13–Oct 15 | 1,094 LV | 44.2 | 45.9 | R+1.7 | — | −5.8 | B | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| GS Strategy Group for New River Strategies; Cook Political Report | Oct 9–Oct 13 | 602 LV | 46 | 44 | D+2 | — | −2.1 | B | cookpolitical.com ↗ |
| YouGov | Oct 6–Oct 12 | 2,245 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 | — | −3.1 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| National Public Affairs for God, Family, & Country PACR-sponsoredMain question · in average | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 678 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | — | −5.1 | — | backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗ |
| National Public Affairs for God, Family, & Country PACR-sponsoredfield: Turek, Laehn, Hinson | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 678 LV | 44 | 47 | R+3 | — | −7.1 | — | backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗ |
| Marist UniversityMain question · in average | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 1,100 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | — | −1.1 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Marist UniversityMain question | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 1,100 RV | 51 | 44 | D+7 | — | +2.9 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Emerson College for Nexstar | Oct 5–Oct 6 | 650 LV | 45 | 46.6 | R+1.6 | — | −5.7 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| SSRS for CNN | Sep 29–Oct 5 | 801 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 | — | −6.1 | C | edition.cnn.com ↗ |
| Suffolk University | Oct 1–Oct 4 | 500 LV | 48 | 43.6 | D+4.4 | — | +0.3 | A | suffolk.edu ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22–Oct 1 | 606 LV | 46.96 | 47.83 | R+0.9 | — | −5.0 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Quantus InsightsMain question · in average | Sep 28–Sep 29 | 738 LV | 48.8 | 51.2 | R+2.4 | — | −6.5 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| Quantus Insightsfield: Turek, Laehn, Hinson | Sep 28–Sep 29 | 738 LV | 46.6 | 48.5 | R+1.9 | — | −6.0 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question · in average | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 1,008 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 | — | −2.1 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 1,204 RV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | — | −0.1 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 22–Sep 23 | 1,200 LV | 47.4 | 45.7 | D+1.7 | — | −2.4 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| Marist University | Sep 17–Sep 20 | 1,050 RV | 50 | 42 | D+8 | — | +3.9 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Sep 16–Sep 18 | 1,089 LV | 42.1 | 44 | R+1.9 | — | −6.0 | B | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| co/efficient | Sep 14–Sep 16 | 831 LV | 42 | 46 | R+4 | — | −8.1 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Cygnal for Iowans for Tax Relief FoundationR-sponsored | Sep 9–Sep 11 | 500 LV | 42.9 | 42.9 | Even | — | −4.1 | A+ | itrfoundation.org ↗ |
| YouGovMain question | Sep 3–Sep 8 | 2,166 RV | 44 | 43 | D+1 | — | −3.1 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| YouGovMain question · in average | Sep 3–Sep 8 | 2,041 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 | — | −0.1 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| YouGovOther version | Sep 3–Sep 8 | 2,127 LV | 45 | 43 | D+2 | — | −2.1 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Emerson College for Nexstar | Aug 31–Sep 1 | 750 LV | 45.05 | 49.47 | R+4.4 | — | −8.5 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| Global Strategy Group for Josh Turek's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 27–Aug 31 | 800 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 | — | −0.1 | C | semafor.com ↗ |
| Abacus DataMain question · in average | Aug 26–Aug 28 | 323 LV | 48 | 41 | D+7 | — | +2.9 | — | abacusdata.ca ↗ |
| Abacus DataMain question | Aug 26–Aug 28 | 500 RV | 41 | 36 | D+5 | — | +0.9 | — | abacusdata.ca ↗ |
| Suffolk University | Aug 20–Aug 23 | 500 LV | 40.8 | 45.4 | R+4.6 | — | −8.7 | A | suffolk.edu ↗ |
| Emerson College for Nexstar | Aug 2–Aug 4 | 712 LV | 44.98 | 47.52 | R+2.5 | — | −6.6 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News | Jun 23–Jun 27 | 1,003 RV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | — | −0.1 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 15–Jun 27 | 600 LV | 46.01 | 48.48 | R+2.5 | — | −6.6 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Josh Turek
- 55%
- Ashley Hinson
- 45%
- Projected margin
- D+0.7
The candidates
State representative from the 20th district (2023–present)Ashley Hinson (R)
U.S. representative from IA-2 (2021–present)
Also on the ballot: Thomas Laehn (Libertarian), 3.1%; Write-in (Other party), 0.1%
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | D+11.0 |
| Attorney General | D+1.8 |
| Secretary of State | R+6.4 |
| Treasurer | R+0.7 |
| Auditor | D+0.5 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Iowa Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 1:35 PM ET