Iowa Governor
Governor · Iowa
Rob Sand flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 11.0 points over Zach Lahn.
Source: Iowa Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Sand compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 99 of 99 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Wapello, +31.4 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 91 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Sand ahead by 7.6. Sand won by 11.0: a 3.4-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Sand ahead
- Poll with Lahn ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Sand | Lahn | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 26–Nov 1 | 705 LV | 51.3 | 43 | D+8.3 | D+8.1 | −2.7 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| AtlasIntel | Oct 28–Nov 1 | 1,219 LV | 54.1 | 44 | D+10.1 | D+7.5 | −0.9 | A | pollstergraph.com ↗ |
| YouGov | Oct 26–Oct 29 | 2,019 LV | 53 | 46 | D+7 | D+6.3 | −4.0 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| co/efficient | Oct 28–Oct 28 | 1,020 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 | D+9.5 | −6.0 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Echelon Insights | Oct 16–Oct 23 | 403 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | D+4.9 | −7.0 | A | netchoice.org ↗ |
| co/efficient | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 863 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 | D+8.1 | −7.0 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| GS Strategy Group for New River Strategies; Cook Political Report | Oct 9–Oct 13 | 602 LV | 54 | 43 | D+11 | — | 0.0 | B | cookpolitical.com ↗ |
| YouGov | Oct 6–Oct 12 | 2,244 LV | 50 | 44 | D+6 | — | −5.0 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| National Public Affairs for God, Family, & Country PACR-sponsored | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 678 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 | — | −6.0 | — | backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗ |
| Marist UniversityMain question · in average | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 1,100 LV | 52 | 45 | D+7 | — | −4.0 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Marist UniversityMain question | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 1,100 RV | 54 | 43 | D+11 | — | 0.0 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Emerson College for Nexstar | Oct 5–Oct 6 | 650 LV | 49 | 45.3 | D+3.7 | — | −7.3 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| SSRS for CNN | Sep 29–Oct 5 | 801 LV | 51 | 42 | D+9 | — | −2.0 | C | edition.cnn.com ↗ |
| Suffolk University | Oct 1–Oct 4 | 500 LV | 54.8 | 42.8 | D+12 | — | +1.0 | A | suffolk.edu ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22–Oct 1 | 606 LV | 52.03 | 40.85 | D+11.2 | — | +0.2 | A | NYT |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question · in average | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 1,008 LV | 53 | 44 | D+9 | — | −2.0 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 1,204 RV | 53 | 43 | D+10 | — | −1.0 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Marist University | Sep 17–Sep 20 | 1,050 RV | 54 | 42 | D+12 | — | +1.0 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| co/efficient | Sep 14–Sep 16 | 831 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 | — | −7.0 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Cygnal for Iowans for Tax Relief FoundationR-sponsored | Sep 9–Sep 11 | 500 LV | 47.8 | 44.4 | D+3.4 | — | −7.6 | A+ | itrfoundation.org ↗ |
| YouGovMain question | Sep 3–Sep 8 | 2,167 RV | 50 | 39 | D+11 | — | 0.0 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| YouGovMain question · in average | Sep 3–Sep 8 | 2,041 LV | 51 | 41 | D+10 | — | −1.0 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| YouGovOther version | Sep 3–Sep 8 | 2,128 LV | 51 | 40 | D+11 | — | 0.0 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Emerson College for Nexstar | Aug 31–Sep 1 | 750 LV | 48.64 | 45.52 | D+3.1 | — | −7.9 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| Suffolk University | Aug 20–Aug 23 | 500 LV | 47.8 | 43.6 | D+4.2 | — | −6.8 | A | suffolk.edu ↗ |
| Emerson College for Nexstar | Aug 2–Aug 4 | 712 LV | 48.4 | 42.69 | D+5.7 | — | −5.3 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News | Jun 23–Jun 27 | 1,003 RV | 53 | 44 | D+9 | — | −2.0 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 15–Jun 27 | 600 LV | 48.19 | 46.54 | D+1.6 | — | −9.4 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Cygnal for Iowans for Tax Relief FoundationR-sponsored | Jun 16–Jun 19 | 600 LV | 47.7 | 43.4 | D+4.3 | — | −6.7 | A+ | taxrelief.org ↗ |
| Global Strategy Group for Rob Sand's campaignD-sponsored | Apr 23–Apr 28 | — LV | 50 | 41 | D+9 | — | −2.0 | C | substack.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Rob Sand
- 86%
- Zach Lahn
- 14%
- Projected margin
- D+6.3
The candidates
Iowa auditor of state (2019–present)Zach Lahn (R)
Businessman
Also on the ballot: Write-in (Other party), 0.1%
Also on this ballot here
| U.S. Senate | D+4.1 |
| Attorney General | D+1.8 |
| Secretary of State | R+6.4 |
| Treasurer | R+0.7 |
| Auditor | D+0.5 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Iowa Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 1:35 PM ET