U.S. Senate in Montana
U.S. Senate · Montana
Kurt Alme held the seat for Republicans, winning by 10.6 points over Seth Bodnar.
Source: Montana Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Bankhead compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 10 of 56 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Missoula, −35.8 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 48 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Other candidates' campaigns: Seth Bodnar $4.9M · Kyle Austin $261.8K.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| PROGRESSIVE VET PACFor Bankhead | $2.3M | |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE ActionFor Alme | $2.1M | |
| MONTANA FREEDOM PACAgainst Alme | $1M | |
| MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENTFor Bankhead | $901.2K | |
| HIGH PLAINS PACFor Alme | $515K | |
| AMERICAN MISSIONFor Alme | $496.8K | |
| MONTANA FREEDOM PACAgainst Bankhead | $345.9K | |
| MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENTFor Alme, against Bankhead | $189.7K | |
| HUNTER ACTION FUND (HAF)For Alme | $61K | |
| WILD MONTANA ACTION FUNDAgainst Bankhead | $12.5K | |
| SEAL PAC USAFor Alme | $10K | |
| WILD MONTANA ACTION FUNDAgainst Alme | $6.7K |
Show 4 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Alme ahead by 11.2. Alme won by 36.2: a 25.0-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Bankhead ahead
- Poll with Alme ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Bankhead | Alme | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now AdvocacyD-sponsored | Oct 22–Oct 23 | 410 LV | 39 | 38 | D+1 | R+6.4 | +37.2 | B− | dfer.org ↗ |
| Montana State University Billings | Oct 5–Oct 21 | 720 A | 26 | 30 | R+4 | R+11.4 | +32.2 | C | dailymontanan.com ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | Oct 15–Oct 18 | 667 LV | 29.4 | 45.6 | R+16.2 | R+18.9 | +20.0 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| Peak Insights for Kurt Alme's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 7–Oct 12 | 500 LV | 29 | 44 | R+15 | R+9.4 | +21.2 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now AdvocacyD-sponsored | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 405 LV | 37 | 35 | D+2 | R+4.8 | +38.2 | B− | sethformontana.com ↗ |
| American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local | Sep 19–Sep 24 | 604 LV | 26.1 | 45.1 | R+19 | R+24.4 | +17.2 | C | montanarightnow.com ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 625 LV | 26.1 | 45.3 | R+19.2 | — | +17.0 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| Aspect Strategic for Montana Freedom PAC | Sep 7–Sep 15 | 715 LV | 32 | 44 | R+12 | — | +24.2 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Rutgers-Eagleton for Montana Free Press | Aug 27–Sep 7 | 845 RV | 30 | 38 | R+8 | — | +28.2 | C+ | montanafreepress.org ↗ |
| Peak Insights for Kurt Alme's campaignR-sponsored | Aug 23–Aug 25 | 600 LV | 22 | 44 | R+22 | — | +14.2 | — | semafor.com ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates for Forward MontanaMain question · in average | Aug 1–Aug 4 | 800 LV | 30 | 45 | R+15 | — | +21.2 | — | forwardmontana.org ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates for Forward Montanafield: Bankhead, Alme | Aug 1–Aug 4 | 800 LV | — | 52 | — | — | — | — | forwardmontana.org ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates for Forward Montanafield: Bodnar, Alme | Aug 1–Aug 4 | 800 LV | 46 | 46 | Even | — | +36.2 | — | forwardmontana.org ↗ |
| GQR for Contours Inc.Main question · in average | Jul 23–Jul 26 | 500 LV | 27 | 41 | R+14 | — | +22.2 | C+ | gelliottmorris.com ↗ |
| GQR for Contours Inc.field: Bodnar, Austin, Alme | Jul 23–Jul 26 | 500 LV | 44 | 40 | D+4 | — | +40.2 | C+ | gelliottmorris.com ↗ |
| GQR for Contours Inc.field: Bodnar, Alme | Jul 23–Jul 26 | 500 LV | 50 | 44 | D+6 | — | +42.2 | C+ | gelliottmorris.com ↗ |
| GQR for Contours Inc.field: Bankhead, Alme | Jul 23–Jul 26 | 500 LV | — | 52 | — | — | — | C+ | gelliottmorris.com ↗ |
| GQR for Contours Inc.field: Bankhead, Austin, Alme | Jul 23–Jul 26 | 500 LV | — | 44 | — | — | — | C+ | gelliottmorris.com ↗ |
| The Bullfinch Group for Independent Center, Independent Leadership Council | Jul 13–Jul 16 | 793 LV | 24 | 36 | R+12 | — | +24.2 | C− | independentcentervoice.com ↗ |
| GrayHouse | Jun 23–Jun 24 | 500 LV | 17 | 41 | R+24 | — | +12.2 | — | insideelections.com ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates for The Majority InstituteD-sponsoredfield: Bodnar, Alme · in average | Jun 18–Jun 24 | 800 LV | 45 | 47 | R+2 | — | +34.2 | — | mtfreedompac.org ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates for The Majority InstituteD-sponsoredfield: Bankhead, Alme | Jun 18–Jun 24 | 800 LV | — | 49 | — | — | — | — | mtfreedompac.org ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates for The Majority InstituteD-sponsoredfield: Bankhead, Bodnar, Alme | Jun 18–Jun 24 | 800 LV | 25 | 47 | R+22 | — | +14.2 | — | mtfreedompac.org ↗ |
| Public Opinion Strategies for The Political CompanyR-sponsored | Jun 8–Jun 11 | 500 LV | 20 | 44 | R+24 | — | +12.2 | B | semafor.com ↗ |
| Tavern Research for Contours Inc. | May 13–May 18 | 607 LV | 50 | 50 | Even | — | +36.2 | — | tavernresearch.com ↗ |
| Change Research for Independent Candidates Action | Mar 17–Mar 20 | 616 LV | 35.06 | 36.84 | R+1.8 | — | +34.4 | B+ | independentaction.org ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 23, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Seth Bodnar
- 5%
- Kurt Alme
- 95%
- Projected margin
- R+10.6