U.S. Senate in Minnesota
U.S. Senate · Minnesota
Peggy Flanagan held the seat for Democrats, winning by 10.1 points over Michele Tafoya.
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Flanagan compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 84 of 87 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Clay, +10.7 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 79 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| NORTH STAR DAWN PACAgainst Flanagan | $6.2M | |
| MINNESOTA FORWARDFor Tafoya, against Flanagan | $2.6M | |
| DLGAFor Flanagan | $1.5M | |
| AB PACFor Flanagan | $1.4M | |
| UNITE TO WINAgainst Flanagan | $1M | |
| Sheepdog PACAgainst Tafoya | $444.3K | |
| OUR HERITAGE MATTERSAgainst Tafoya | $353.2K | |
| Working AmericaFor Flanagan, against Tafoya | $314.7K | |
| The Edge Action Fund (SuperPAC)Against Tafoya | $175K | |
| CLEAR VOICE MINNESOTAFor Flanagan | $133K | |
| MINNESOTA FORWARDFor Flanagan | $104.4K | |
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTYFor Tafoya | $25.2K |
Show 4 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Flanagan ahead by 4.8. Flanagan won by 10.1: a 5.3-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Flanagan ahead
- Poll with Tafoya ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Flanagan | Tafoya | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 28–Nov 1 | 2,133 LV | 48.1 | 45.7 | D+2.4 | R+0.3 | −7.7 | A | pollstergraph.com ↗ |
| Survey 160Main question · in average | Oct 27–Nov 1 | 1,365 LV | 52 | 43 | D+9 | D+7.4 | −1.1 | — | survey160.com ↗ |
| Survey 160Main question | Oct 27–Nov 1 | 1,410 RV | 52 | 42 | D+10 | — | −0.1 | — | survey160.com ↗ |
| Research Co. | Oct 30–Nov 1 | 450 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 | D+4.9 | −5.1 | A | researchco.ca ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 29–Oct 30 | 1,200 LV | 49.3 | 46.4 | D+2.9 | D+4.2 | −7.2 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV Minneapolis | Oct 24–Oct 28 | 714 LV | 48 | 41 | D+7 | D+7.7 | −3.1 | A | kstp.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 19–Oct 26 | 752 LV | 54.21 | 40.31 | D+13.9 | D+14.3 | +3.8 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Victory Insights for Michele Tafoya's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 21–Oct 22 | 1,194 LV | 47.8 | 44.4 | D+3.4 | — | −6.7 | C | irp.cdn-website.com ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Oct 13–Oct 15 | 1,079 LV | 48.1 | 44.6 | D+3.5 | — | −6.6 | B | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV Minneapolis | Oct 9–Oct 12 | 718 LV | 45 | 42 | D+3 | — | −7.1 | A | kstp.com ↗ |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. for KARE 11, Minnesota Star Tribune | Oct 5–Oct 7 | 800 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 | — | −6.1 | A | startribune.com ↗ |
| Morning Consult for The Daily Agenda | Oct 2–Oct 7 | 1,000 RV | 45 | 41 | D+4 | — | −6.1 | C | thedailyagenda.com ↗ |
| GQR for Senate Majority PACD-sponsoredMain question · in average | Oct 1–Oct 4 | 800 LV | 53 | 44 | D+9 | — | −1.1 | C+ | x.com ↗ |
| GQR for Senate Majority PACD-sponsoredfield: Flanagan, Simonetti, Whiting, Tafoya | Oct 1–Oct 4 | 800 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8 | — | −2.1 | C+ | x.com ↗ |
| Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project | Sep 29–Sep 30 | 622 LV | 45.8 | 43.6 | D+2.2 | — | −7.9 | C | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 28–Sep 29 | 1,200 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 | — | −9.1 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| co/efficient | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 833 LV | 43 | 42 | D+1 | — | −9.1 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV Minneapolis | Sep 9–Sep 14 | 654 LV | 42 | 42 | Even | — | −10.1 | A | kstp.com ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 8–Sep 10 | 720 LV | 48.9 | 45.4 | D+3.5 | — | −6.6 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| TIPP Insights for League of American WorkersR-sponsoredfield: Flanagan, Simonetti, Whiting, Tafoya · in average | Aug 31–Sep 2 | 1,192 LV | 43.96 | 41.86 | D+2.1 | — | −8.0 | A− | dailysignal.com ↗ |
| TIPP Insights for League of American WorkersR-sponsoredfield: Flanagan, Simonetti, Whiting, Tafoya | Aug 31–Sep 2 | 1,494 RV | 39.99 | 37.98 | D+2 | — | −8.1 | A− | dailysignal.com ↗ |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV Minneapolis | Aug 13–Aug 17 | 661 LV | 46 | 41 | D+5 | — | −5.1 | A | kstp.com ↗ |
| Impact Research for Angie Craig's campaignD-sponsored | May 26–May 28 | 808 LV | 51 | 44 | D+7 | — | −3.1 | C | x.com ↗ |
| Emerson College | Feb 6–Feb 8 | 1,000 LV | 47.1 | 40.6 | D+6.5 | — | −3.6 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| Impact Research for Angie Craig's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 8–Jul 11 | 604 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | — | −7.1 | C | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Peggy Flanagan
- 88%
- Michele Tafoya
- 12%
- Projected margin
- D+7.0
The candidates
Lieutenant governor of Minnesota (2019–present)Michele Tafoya (R)
Reporter and retired sports broadcaster
Also on the ballot: Marisa Simonetti (Independent), 1.5%; Rebecca Whiting (Libertarian), 1.1%; Write-in (Other party), 0.1%
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | D+12.8 |
| Attorney General | D+8.7 |
| Secretary of State | D+12.9 |
| Auditor | D+8.8 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Minnesota Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 1:21 PM ET