U.S. Senate in Kansas
U.S. Senate · Kansas
Adam Hamilton flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 5.1 points over Roger Marshall.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Hamilton compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 105 of 105 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Seward, +52.5 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 97 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| PEOPLE OVER POLITICS ACTION FUNDAgainst Marshall | $14.7M | |
| WinSenateAgainst Marshall | $14.1M | |
| Lower Costs NowFor Hamilton, against Marshall | $11M | |
| Government That Works PACFor Hamilton, against Marshall | $6M | |
| MAIN STREET FUNDAgainst Hamilton | $3.8M | |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE ActionFor Marshall, against Hamilton | $3M | |
| Club for Growth ActionAgainst Hamilton | $2.5M | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.Against Hamilton | $2.5M | |
| THE 1861 INITIATIVEAgainst Marshall | $1.9M | |
| Win it Back PACAgainst Hamilton | $1.5M | |
| CHOOSE FREEDOM PACAgainst Hamilton | $1.3M | |
| New Deal for All, Inc.Against Marshall | $908.6K | |
| OUR HERITAGE MATTERSAgainst Marshall | $692.3K |
Show 5 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC independent expenditures; FEC campaign filingsUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Hamilton ahead by 3.5. Hamilton won by 5.1: a 1.6-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Hamilton ahead
- Poll with Marshall ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Hamilton | Marshall | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 28–Nov 1 | 2,038 LV | 51.9 | 44.9 | D+7 | D+4.4 | +1.9 | A | pollstergraph.com ↗ |
| Survey 160Main question · in average | Oct 27–Nov 1 | 1,267 LV | 50 | 44 | D+6 | D+4.3 | +0.9 | — | survey160.com ↗ |
| Survey 160Main question | Oct 27–Nov 1 | 1,339 RV | 50 | 43 | D+7 | — | +1.9 | — | survey160.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 27–Nov 1 | 736 LV | 49 | 43.9 | D+5.1 | D+4.8 | 0.0 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| YouGov | Oct 26–Oct 29 | 2,086 LV | 50 | 49 | D+1 | D+0.3 | −4.1 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Emerson College | Oct 26–Oct 28 | 800 LV | 49.5 | 47.1 | D+2.4 | D+3.3 | −2.7 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and GovernmentMain question · in average | Oct 22–Oct 26 | 801 LV | 54 | 44 | D+10 | D+7.4 | +4.9 | A− | washingtonpost.com ↗ |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Governmentfield: Hamilton, Graham, Marshall | Oct 22–Oct 26 | 801 LV | 52 | 43 | D+9 | — | +3.9 | A− | washingtonpost.com ↗ |
| SSRS for CNN | Oct 20–Oct 26 | 838 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 | — | −1.1 | C | edition.cnn.com ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 13–Oct 14 | 1,200 LV | 46.6 | 47.7 | R+1.1 | — | −6.2 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 9–Oct 10 | 1,200 LV | 47.5 | 46.7 | D+0.8 | — | −4.3 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| GBAO for Adam Hamilton's campaignD-sponsoredMain question · in average | Sep 30–Oct 4 | 600 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 | — | −0.1 | C | x.com ↗ |
| GBAO for Adam Hamilton's campaignD-sponsoredfield: Hamilton, Graham, Marshall | Sep 30–Oct 4 | 600 LV | 46 | 41 | D+5 | — | −0.1 | C | x.com ↗ |
| YouGov | Sep 24–Oct 4 | 2,253 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | — | −2.1 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Sep 29–Oct 1 | 1,095 LV | 44.4 | 43.5 | D+0.9 | — | −4.2 | B | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityMain question · in average | Sep 22–Sep 30 | 605 LV | 46.39 | 46.67 | R+0.3 | — | −5.4 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena Universityfield: Hamilton, Graham, Marshall | Sep 22–Sep 30 | 605 LV | 44.87 | 44.76 | D+0.1 | — | −5.0 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Global Strategy Group for Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD-sponsoredMain question · in average | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 800 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 | — | −3.1 | C | washingtonsun.com ↗ |
| Global Strategy Group for Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD-sponsoredfield: Hamilton, Graham, Marshall | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 800 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 | — | −1.1 | C | washingtonsun.com ↗ |
| Emerson College for Nexstar | Sep 15–Sep 16 | 750 LV | 44.75 | 43.3 | D+1.5 | — | −3.6 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| co/efficient | Sep 8–Sep 10 | 915 LV | 44 | 49 | R+5 | — | −10.1 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Global Strategy Group for People Over Politics Action FundD-sponsored | Aug 12–Aug 16 | 800 LV | 44 | 43 | D+1 | — | −4.1 | C | NYT |
| Public Policy Polling for Senate Majority PACD-sponsored | Aug 7–Aug 8 | — RV | 45 | 46 | R+1 | — | −6.1 | B+ | static01.nyt.com ↗ |
| GBAO for Adam Hamilton's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 8–Jul 13 | 600 LV | 43 | 47 | R+4 | — | −9.1 | C | politico.com ↗ |
| Tavern ResearchMain question · in average | Jan 26–Jan 28 | 1,013 LV | 46 | 54 | R+8 | — | −13.1 | — | mailchi.mp ↗ |
| Tavern ResearchOther version | Jan 26–Jan 28 | 1,013 LV | 51 | 49 | D+2 | — | −3.1 | — | mailchi.mp ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Adam Hamilton
- 61%
- Roger Marshall
- 39%
- Projected margin
- D+1.6
The candidates
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | D+0.7 |
| Attorney General | D+1.2 |
| Secretary of State | R+0.8 |
| Treasurer | R+6.9 |
Results within this state. Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Hamilton.