2026 election for Alaska's at-large District
U.S. House · Alaska
Nick Begich III leads Bill Hill by 9.2 points. The race has not been called.
Top-four primaryRanked-choice voting
Source: Alaska Division of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every precinct, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a precinct, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Hafner compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 1 of 30 did. The largest shift among the bigger precincts: Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area, −42.1 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 22 more
Bar: share of the district's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Other candidates' campaigns: Bill Hill $2.6M.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPAgainst Begich | $3.2M | |
| WHEEL DOG PACAgainst Begich | $2.7M | |
| YOUR COMMUNITY PACAgainst Begich | $1.3M | |
| Club for Growth ActionFor Begich | $1.1M | |
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBSFor Begich | $508.1K | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Begich | $421.1K | |
| AMERICA FIRST AGRICULTURE ACTION INC.For Begich | $378.2K | |
| Freedom Caucus FundFor Begich | $370.4K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. No FEC filings matched for Eric Hafner. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Begich ahead by 3.8. Begich leads by 42.3: a 38.5-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Hafner ahead
- Poll with Begich ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Hafner | Begich | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 28–Nov 1 | 522 LV | 5.9 | 46.5 | R+40.6 | R+2.7 | +1.7 | A | pollstergraph.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityFirst round | Oct 23–Oct 30 | 610 LV | 5.6 | 44 | R+38.4 | — | +3.9 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityFinal round · in average | Oct 23–Oct 30 | 562 LV | — | 51.8 | — | R+4.2 | — | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityOther version | Oct 23–Oct 30 | 576 LV | 6 | 47.7 | R+41.7 | — | +0.6 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Data for ProgressFirst round | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 668 LV | 5 | 50 | R+45 | — | −2.7 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Data for ProgressFinal round · in average | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 659 LV | — | 51 | — | R+3.0 | — | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Data for ProgressOther version | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 694 LV | 5 | 48 | R+43 | — | −0.7 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFirst round | Oct 1–Oct 3 | 1,512 LV | 6.9 | 49.8 | R+42.9 | — | −0.6 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFinal round · in average | Oct 1–Oct 3 | 1,512 LV | — | 52.7 | — | R+5.7 | — | B− | x.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityFirst round | Sep 24–Oct 1 | 487 LV | 8.59 | 48.87 | R+40.3 | — | +2.0 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityFinal round · in average | Sep 24–Oct 1 | 476 LV | — | 53.04 | — | R+6.5 | — | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityOther version | Sep 24–Oct 1 | 504 LV | 8.19 | 46.59 | R+38.4 | — | +3.9 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPFirst round | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 800 LV | 11 | 51 | R+40 | — | +2.3 | B | aarp.org ↗ |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPFinal round · in average | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 800 LV | — | 57 | — | R+14.0 | — | B | aarp.org ↗ |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPOther version | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 800 LV | 9 | 45 | R+36 | — | +6.3 | B | aarp.org ↗ |
| The Bullfinch Group for Independent Leadership CouncilFirst round | Sep 1–Sep 6 | 820 LV | 7.4 | 44.2 | R+36.8 | — | +5.5 | C− | independentleadershipcouncil.com ↗ |
| The Bullfinch Group for Independent Leadership CouncilFinal round · in average | Sep 1–Sep 6 | 820 LV | — | 50.3 | — | — | — | C− | independentleadershipcouncil.com ↗ |
| GBAO for Bill Hill's campaign | Aug 3–Aug 5 | 500 LV | — | 46 | — | — | — | C | punchbowl.news ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFinal round · in average | Aug 2–Aug 5 | 1,371 LV | — | 53.6 | — | — | — | B− | bsky.app ↗ |
| Data for Progress | Jul 28–Aug 4 | 605 LV | — | 47 | — | — | — | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Tavern Research for Contours Inc. | May 18–May 27 | 452 LV | — | 52 | — | — | — | — | tavernresearch.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for Bill Hill's campaign | Feb 11–Feb 12 | 600 LV | — | 41 | — | — | — | B+ | NYT |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Bill Hill
- 29%
- Nick Begich III
- 71%
- Projected margin
- R+3.4
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representative (2025–present)Bill Hill (NPA)
Commercial fisherman and former superintendent of the Bristol Bay Borough School DistrictEric Hafner (D)
Federal prisoner, perennial candidate, and candidate for this seat in 2024
Also on the ballot: Jim McDermott (Libertarian), 2.7%