Flipped from RepublicanCalledUnofficial resultsIncumbent defeated
Texas Governor
Governor · Texas
Gina Hinojosa flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 7.1 points over Greg Abbott.
Gina HinojosaDemocrat · winner
52.8%5,230,789
Greg AbbottRepublican · incumbent
45.7%4,524,527
Pat DixonLibertarian
1.5%148,078
Jenn MackOther party
0.0%2,198
Mike MillerOther party
0.0%1,266
Edward Earl GilesOther party
0.0%449
Jinghpaw MajoishingraOther party
0.0%74
9,907,381 votes
Source: Texas Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Hinojosa compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 254 of 254 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Starr, +64.9 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
CountyShareMarginShift
HarrisD+28.6+23.0
DallasD+39.2+17.1
TarrantD+14.2+19.3
BexarD+31.0+21.2
TravisD+52.4+13.4
CollinD+4.5+15.6
DentonD+2.1+15.2
Fort BendD+22.6+21.0
Show 246 more
WilliamsonD+13.7+16.2
MontgomeryR+26.7+18.8
El PasoD+42.1+27.0
HidalgoD+42.0+44.9
BrazoriaD+1.7+21.4
GalvestonR+9.7+17.7
HaysD+26.9+21.3
BellR+0.6+15.6
LubbockR+20.5+19.0
CameronD+34.6+40.4
NuecesD+6.8+18.3
SmithR+29.0+16.0
ComalR+33.5+12.0
EllisR+8.3+22.7
McLennanR+14.1+16.7
BrazosD+0.7+25.6
ParkerR+53.9+12.5
JeffersonD+9.1+18.0
GuadalupeR+10.0+19.4
JohnsonR+30.6+20.6
KaufmanR+2.5+25.3
WebbD+39.6+41.8
GraysonR+41.4+12.7
RockwallR+26.5+14.2
RandallR+45.2+15.2
MidlandR+41.7+18.7
TaylorR+34.8+15.0
GreggR+24.0+18.2
HuntR+37.6+17.9
BastropD+5.4+23.7
Tom GreenR+30.7+17.3
WichitaR+28.7+15.2
HendersonR+50.2+13.2
WiseR+55.1+15.0
HoodR+55.6+10.4
EctorR+22.9+29.9
VictoriaR+27.2+15.3
BowieR+35.6+13.0
AngelinaR+34.4+17.5
OrangeR+53.2+13.4
KendallR+47.7+8.0
PotterR+23.8+20.6
LibertyR+30.4+31.2
BurnetR+43.6+12.1
HarrisonR+37.7+12.8
WallerR+5.5+19.5
KerrR+43.2+11.1
Van ZandtR+63.3+11.5
WilsonR+40.2+13.4
WalkerR+22.8+17.2
NacogdochesR+17.0+21.8
MedinaR+25.4+17.3
HardinR+64.2+11.6
San PatricioR+17.1+19.3
WoodR+62.8+6.9
ChambersR+48.3+17.3
CoryellR+24.9+15.7
PolkR+49.0+9.9
RuskR+43.1+16.3
CookeR+54.4+12.5
CherokeeR+47.3+15.3
LamarR+47.0+13.9
NavarroR+32.2+19.5
WashingtonR+44.9+9.6
UpshurR+59.0+12.0
AndersonR+48.0+13.8
CaldwellD+11.4+25.8
GillespieR+52.0+8.9
AtascosaR+19.3+24.0
ErathR+49.2+18.6
StarrD+48.9+64.8
HopkinsR+49.1+15.5
HillR+49.4+15.0
FanninR+55.1+12.2
BrownR+63.4+10.5
MaverickD+35.1+53.6
AustinR+49.1+13.4
WhartonR+37.2+14.6
JasperR+56.0+10.5
Val VerdeD+3.9+30.5
GrimesR+46.7+13.6
LlanoR+55.6+5.2
FayetteR+50.0+11.2
MatagordaR+32.3+18.2
CassR+58.3+7.4
Jim WellsD+9.9+25.5
AransasR+47.9+7.8
Palo PintoR+49.4+17.7
San JacintoR+53.2+12.1
BanderaR+56.2+5.6
LampasasR+49.5+9.9
TitusR+28.0+26.6
MontagueR+69.4+8.3
MilamR+43.9+13.4
LavacaR+67.9+8.1
PanolaR+55.3+11.1
UvaldeR+7.0+26.4
ColoradoR+46.4+10.7
KlebergD+9.7+22.3
BurlesonR+52.7+10.1
BosqueR+57.4+9.8
BlancoR+45.6+6.7
HaleR+33.2+24.7
ShelbyR+50.2+14.4
HoustonR+48.9+6.4
FreestoneR+52.4+14.0
LimestoneR+40.5+16.3
TylerR+66.0+7.4
BeeR+17.5+22.4
LeonR+67.9+8.8
HowardR+44.5+18.3
RobertsonR+37.7+14.4
LeeR+46.5+13.9
GonzalesR+34.3+20.4
YoungR+63.9+12.3
HockleyR+47.1+19.2
CalhounR+34.4+17.8
EastlandR+64.9+12.7
DeWittR+57.0+10.0
HutchinsonR+64.0+13.1
TrinityR+56.7+10.4
GrayR+62.2+14.9
CallahanR+67.1+10.4
JonesR+59.0+14.0
ComancheR+59.8+14.3
RainsR+64.4+8.5
JacksonR+57.4+13.3
FallsR+32.7+12.1
GainesR+65.2+17.4
WillacyD+28.4+31.7
ClayR+70.2+9.3
SomervellR+60.3+10.2
MadisonR+51.5+12.9
CampR+37.3+16.2
NewtonR+58.6+8.0
SabineR+71.9+6.6
FranklinR+59.6+9.3
Red RiverR+48.5+13.3
MorrisR+40.3+10.7
ScurryR+60.6+12.9
AndrewsR+47.0+25.6
MooreR+34.0+33.1
KarnesR+41.9+16.3
ArcherR+71.1+8.2
Live OakR+60.7+8.9
FrioD+4.9+29.5
MarionR+45.0+7.5
BrewsterD+8.0+20.6
NolanR+44.4+14.7
HamiltonR+63.2+7.8
Deaf SmithR+19.2+32.5
JackR+68.7+13.5
WilbargerR+47.0+13.6
PecosR+16.2+28.6
GoliadR+49.1+11.1
ZapataD+31.6+54.1
DuvalD+28.2+38.2
LambR+47.2+17.1
ColemanR+72.2+6.7
RunnelsR+66.2+10.9
ReevesR+3.8+33.0
ZavalaD+46.0+31.6
San AugustineR+44.0+12.3
StephensR+65.7+13.6
DimmitD+35.4+32.4
McCullochR+62.1+11.3
TerryR+46.2+18.8
DawsonR+45.0+16.0
WardR+45.3+20.8
RefugioR+27.9+11.6
CarsonR+69.9+11.2
OchiltreeR+54.4+27.1
San SabaR+66.2+12.6
MasonR+56.1+8.9
MillsR+67.6+9.3
LynnR+56.8+13.6
DeltaR+58.1+11.6
ParmerR+46.6+23.5
PresidioD+52.5+22.3
KimbleR+67.8+9.8
La SalleD+5.9+26.4
MitchellR+62.5+8.8
BrooksD+34.2+24.6
YoakumR+41.6+29.2
SwisherR+48.7+14.7
ChildressR+61.2+14.8
WheelerR+71.0+13.6
FloydR+44.2+20.7
HaskellR+60.6+10.8
CastroR+42.9+15.2
HartleyR+70.2+13.1
HansfordR+64.7+20.1
RealR+60.8+6.1
CrosbyR+32.2+19.1
MartinR+58.8+16.9
BaileyR+38.2+22.9
FisherR+54.3+8.8
Jim HoggD+44.8+36.6
CokeR+69.6+10.0
WinklerR+44.9+25.6
ShackelfordR+74.2+7.9
DonleyR+70.8+7.4
KinneyR+32.5+17.9
HemphillR+56.7+19.0
BaylorR+68.2+8.7
GarzaR+56.9+15.6
SuttonR+51.0+16.0
DallamR+52.8+25.5
Jeff DavisR+10.3+11.0
CraneR+45.7+26.9
KnoxR+51.3+17.1
ConchoR+61.6+12.3
CrockettR+33.9+19.9
HardemanR+61.0+11.7
CollingsworthR+68.8+8.7
LipscombR+70.1+9.4
SchleicherR+47.3+17.1
CulbersonD+16.0+33.0
ArmstrongR+77.6+7.9
UptonR+56.3+20.7
HallR+60.7+12.6
EdwardsR+61.0+12.3
HudspethR+20.5+25.6
MenardR+53.7+12.8
DickensR+62.4+7.9
OldhamR+73.3+11.0
ShermanR+62.5+20.7
ReaganR+40.2+29.2
CochranR+40.4+25.4
IrionR+69.1+6.4
ThrockmortonR+70.5+12.8
BriscoeR+69.4+10.3
GlasscockR+80.7+7.5
CottleR+62.5+9.9
StonewallR+58.9+10.5
MotleyR+83.1+5.7
RobertsR+88.8+3.3
SterlingR+66.7+19.1
FoardR+56.7+8.6
McMullenR+70.9+13.5
KentR+62.2+14.1
TerrellR+46.7+8.4
BordenR+87.4+4.1
KenedyR+17.6+29.2
KingR+86.4+4.7
LovingR+69.1+9.2
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Abbott ahead by 2.0. Hinojosa won by 7.1: a 9.1-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Hinojosa ahead
- Poll with Abbott ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Hinojosa | Abbott | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | Oct 31–Nov 2 | 450 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 | R+2.7 | −9.1 | A | researchco.ca ↗ |
| AtlasIntel | Oct 28–Nov 1 | 1,678 A | 49.2 | 47.6 | D+1.6 | R+1.5 | −5.5 | A | atlasintel.org ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityMain question · in average | Oct 27–Nov 1 | 1,215 LV | 48.1 | 46.6 | D+1.5 | D+0.9 | −5.6 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityMain question | Oct 27–Nov 1 | 1,215 RV | 49.3 | 43.1 | D+6.2 | — | −0.9 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 31–Nov 1 | 500 LV | 48.9 | 49.7 | R+0.8 | R+0.2 | −7.9 | A+ | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Kreate Strategies | Oct 27–Oct 30 | 900 LV | 47 | 49 | R+2 | — | −9.1 | — | kstrat.net ↗ |
| ActiVote | Oct 23–Oct 29 | 400 LV | 47.9 | 52.1 | R+4.2 | — | −11.3 | A− | activote.net ↗ |
| YouGov | Oct 26–Oct 29 | 2,139 LV | 49 | 50 | R+1 | R+1.7 | −8.1 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | Oct 26–Oct 28 | 1,214 LV | 46.3 | 51.6 | R+5.3 | R+2.5 | −12.4 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| SSRS for CNN | Oct 20–Oct 27 | 923 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | — | −9.1 | C | edition.cnn.com ↗ |
| YouGov for 254 LabsMain question · in average | Oct 21–Oct 26 | 1,000 LV | 49 | 46 | D+3 | — | −4.1 | B | 254labs.io ↗ |
| Data for Progress | Oct 23–Oct 26 | 712 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | — | −8.1 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| YouGov for 254 LabsMain question | Oct 21–Oct 26 | 1,000 RV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | — | −3.1 | B | 254labs.io ↗ |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Oct 21–Oct 25 | 2,000 LV | 47 | 50 | R+3 | — | −10.1 | — | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| ActiVote | Oct 17–Oct 21 | 400 LV | 47.5 | 52.5 | R+5 | — | −12.1 | A− | activote.net ↗ |
| YouGov for Univision | Oct 13–Oct 21 | 1,000 RV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | — | −9.1 | B | univision.com ↗ |
| Verasight for VoteHubfield: Hinojosa, Dixon, Abbott · in average | Oct 1–Oct 20 | 601 LV | 46.4 | 47.7 | R+1.3 | — | −8.4 | — | cdn.votehub.com ↗ |
| Verasight for VoteHubfield: Hinojosa, Dixon, Abbott | Oct 1–Oct 20 | 601 RV | 44.9 | 47.6 | R+2.7 | — | −9.8 | — | cdn.votehub.com ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 2,011 RV | 49 | 50 | R+1 | — | −8.1 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question · in average | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 1,398 LV | 47 | 52 | R+5 | — | −12.1 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Emerson College for Nexstar | Oct 17–Oct 19 | 1,000 LV | 46.59 | 51.07 | R+4.5 | — | −11.6 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research | Oct 15–Oct 18 | 969 LV | 48 | 51 | R+3 | — | −10.1 | C+ | texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com ↗ |
| YouGov for CBS News | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 1,460 LV | 48 | 52 | R+4 | — | −11.1 | B | cbsnews.com ↗ |
| ActiVote | Sep 30–Oct 14 | 400 LV | 49.1 | 50.9 | R+1.8 | — | −8.9 | A− | activote.net ↗ |
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | Oct 10–Oct 14 | 2,000 LV | 46 | 49 | R+3 | — | −10.1 | — | uh.edu ↗ |
| GS Strategy Group for New River Strategies; Cook Political Report | Oct 9–Oct 13 | 934 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | — | −9.1 | B | cookpolitical.com ↗ |
| Marist UniversityMain question · in average | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 1,196 LV | 45 | 49 | R+4 | — | −11.1 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Marist UniversityMain question | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 1,196 RV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | — | −8.1 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| GBAO for Gina Hinojosa's campaignD-sponsored | Oct 5–Oct 8 | 800 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2 | — | −5.1 | C | ginafortexas.com ↗ |
| Siena College for ReconMR | Oct 5–Oct 8 | 617 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | — | −8.1 | A | reconmr.com ↗ |
| YouGovMain question · in average | Sep 28–Oct 5 | 3,622 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1 | — | −6.1 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| YouGov for University of Texasfield: Hinojosa, Dixon, Abbott | Sep 25–Oct 5 | 861 LV | 49 | 48 | D+1 | — | −6.1 | B | texaspolitics.utexas.edu ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 21–Sep 30 | 615 LV | 49.04 | 45.53 | D+3.5 | — | −3.6 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question · in average | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 881 LV | 47 | 52 | R+5 | — | −12.1 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 1,203 RV | 49 | 50 | R+1 | — | −8.1 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy for Public First Action | Sep 20–Sep 28 | 800 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 | — | −9.1 | — | static01.nyt.com ↗ |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | Sep 18–Sep 28 | 850 LV | 44 | 48 | R+4 | — | −11.1 | B | uml.edu ↗ |
| Big Data Poll for Public Polling Projectfield: Hinojosa, Dixon, Abbott · in average | Sep 24–Sep 26 | 698 LV | 44.4 | 48.9 | R+4.5 | — | −11.6 | C | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| Big Data Poll for Public Polling Projectfield: Hinojosa, Dixon, Abbott | Sep 24–Sep 26 | 793 RV | 44.2 | 48.2 | R+4 | — | −11.1 | C | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| Stratus Intelligence for Texans for a Conservative MajorityR-sponsored | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 865 LV | 45 | 50 | R+5 | — | −12.1 | — | politico.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 2, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Gina Hinojosa
- 34%
- Greg Abbott
- 66%
- Projected margin
- R+2.5
The candidates
Gina Hinojosa (D)
State representative from the 49th district (2017–present)Greg Abbott (R)
Incumbent governor (2015–present)
State representative from the 49th district (2017–present)Greg Abbott (R)
Incumbent governor (2015–present)
Also on the ballot: Pat Dixon (Libertarian), 1.5%; Jenn Mack (Other party), 0.0%; Mike Miller (Other party), 0.0%; Edward Earl Giles (Other party), 0.0%; Jinghpaw Majoishingra (Other party), 0.0%
Also on this ballot here
| U.S. Senate | D+12.1 |
| Lieutenant Governor | D+6.1 |
| Attorney General | D+6.4 |
| Comptroller | D+5.1 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Texas Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET