Flipped from RepublicanCalledUnofficial results

U.S. Senate in Texas

Name: U.S. Senate in Texas
Start: 2026-11-03
Location: Texas

U.S. Senate · Texas

James Talarico flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 12.1 points over Ken Paxton.

James TalaricoDemocrat · winner

55.1%5,444,982

Ken PaxtonRepublican

43.0%4,249,373

Ted BrownLibertarian

1.9%190,237

Avery AyersOther party

0.0%1,925

Jade SimmonsOther party

0.0%1,738

Bradford 'Brad' HallNonpartisan

0.0%1,263

Zul MohamedOther party

0.0%186

9,889,704 votes

Source: Texas Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET

Where the race moved

Against the 2024 presidential vote

Every county, 2024 to 2026

Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Talarico compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 254 of 254 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Starr, +71.8 points.

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

The seat's recent races

Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)

By county

CountyShareMarginShift

HarrisD+32.9+27.4

DallasD+45.4+23.3

TarrantD+19.2+24.3

BexarD+35.4+25.7

TravisD+58.5+19.4

CollinD+12.1+23.2

DentonD+8.4+21.6

Fort BendD+28.5+26.9

Show 246 more

WilliamsonD+20.3+22.7

MontgomeryR+22.2+23.2

El PasoD+47.9+32.8

HidalgoD+46.5+49.3

BrazoriaD+5.4+25.1

GalvestonR+5.9+21.5

HaysD+32.0+26.4

BellD+5.1+21.3

LubbockR+16.5+23.0

CameronD+38.5+44.3

NuecesD+11.2+22.7

ComalR+29.2+16.3

SmithR+24.6+20.3

EllisR+4.4+26.5

McLennanR+8.5+22.3

BrazosD+6.0+30.8

ParkerR+50.8+15.5

JeffersonD+13.2+22.1

GuadalupeR+5.8+23.6

JohnsonR+27.2+24.1

KaufmanD+1.3+29.1

WebbD+47.3+49.5

GraysonR+37.4+16.7

RockwallR+22.5+18.3

RandallR+41.1+19.3

MidlandR+37.4+23.0

TaylorR+31.1+18.7

GreggR+20.1+22.1

HuntR+33.9+21.6

BastropD+10.9+29.2

Tom GreenR+26.9+21.1

WichitaR+24.2+19.8

HendersonR+46.1+17.3

WiseR+52.2+17.8

HoodR+52.4+13.7

EctorR+18.9+33.9

VictoriaR+23.1+19.5

BowieR+32.1+16.5

AngelinaR+30.4+21.5

OrangeR+49.9+16.7

KendallR+43.0+12.7

PotterR+19.0+25.3

LibertyR+28.0+33.6

BurnetR+38.9+16.8

HarrisonR+34.6+15.9

WallerR+1.8+23.2

KerrR+37.3+17.1

Van ZandtR+60.9+13.9

WilsonR+35.5+18.1

WalkerR+19.1+20.9

NacogdochesR+13.2+25.6

MedinaR+21.8+20.9

HardinR+61.5+14.3

San PatricioR+12.7+23.7

WoodR+59.0+10.8

ChambersR+45.9+19.7

CoryellR+19.3+21.3

PolkR+45.8+13.0

RuskR+40.1+19.2

CookeR+49.3+17.5

CherokeeR+43.8+18.9

LamarR+45.6+15.3

NavarroR+29.1+22.6

UpshurR+56.0+15.0

WashingtonR+41.4+13.1

AndersonR+45.4+16.3

CaldwellD+15.7+30.0

GillespieR+47.1+13.8

AtascosaR+14.9+28.4

ErathR+45.9+22.0

HopkinsR+45.5+19.1

HillR+46.1+18.3

StarrD+55.8+71.8

FanninR+51.7+15.7

BrownR+60.8+13.1

AustinR+46.1+16.5

MaverickD+41.0+59.5

WhartonR+34.7+17.1

JasperR+51.4+15.1

GrimesR+43.8+16.5

LlanoR+49.8+11.0

Val VerdeD+12.2+38.7

FayetteR+45.1+16.2

MatagordaR+29.3+21.2

CassR+55.6+10.1

Jim WellsD+15.4+30.9

AransasR+42.6+13.1

San JacintoR+49.9+15.4

Palo PintoR+48.4+18.7

BanderaR+51.5+10.4

LampasasR+43.8+15.6

TitusR+24.7+29.9

MontagueR+66.5+11.2

MilamR+40.0+17.3

LavacaR+65.5+10.5

PanolaR+52.6+13.7

UvaldeR+2.4+31.0

ColoradoR+43.3+13.8

KlebergD+14.9+27.6

BurlesonR+48.2+14.7

BosqueR+52.4+14.8

BlancoR+41.6+10.7

HaleR+29.7+28.3

ShelbyR+47.4+17.1

HoustonR+45.7+9.6

FreestoneR+50.6+15.8

LimestoneR+36.5+20.2

TylerR+61.8+11.6

BeeR+13.6+26.2

LeonR+64.6+12.1

HowardR+40.3+22.5

RobertsonR+32.4+19.6

LeeR+42.4+18.0

GonzalesR+31.0+23.7

YoungR+59.7+16.5

HockleyR+45.8+20.4

CalhounR+31.8+20.3

EastlandR+63.4+14.2

DeWittR+54.0+13.0

HutchinsonR+60.0+17.1

TrinityR+53.3+13.7

GrayR+57.8+19.3

CallahanR+64.2+13.3

JonesR+56.0+17.0

ComancheR+57.7+16.3

RainsR+61.6+11.4

JacksonR+54.3+16.4

FallsR+28.5+16.2

GainesR+63.4+19.2

WillacyD+35.0+38.3

ClayR+67.9+11.6

SomervellR+57.3+13.2

MadisonR+47.2+17.2

CampR+34.4+19.1

NewtonR+54.8+11.8

SabineR+69.2+9.3

Red RiverR+48.3+13.5

FranklinR+55.1+13.8

MorrisR+37.4+13.6

ScurryR+58.4+15.1

AndrewsR+43.6+29.0

MooreR+30.6+36.5

KarnesR+38.1+20.0

ArcherR+69.2+10.2

Live OakR+57.4+12.2

MarionR+41.4+11.1

BrewsterD+11.3+23.9

FrioD+11.3+35.8

NolanR+39.4+19.8

HamiltonR+58.4+12.7

Deaf SmithR+15.0+36.6

JackR+68.6+13.6

WilbargerR+44.3+16.2

GoliadR+47.0+13.2

PecosR+9.1+35.7

DuvalD+36.7+46.7

LambR+44.7+19.6

ZapataD+40.7+63.1

ColemanR+69.1+9.7

RunnelsR+63.0+14.1

ReevesD+7.7+44.6

San AugustineR+40.2+16.1

ZavalaD+50.6+36.1

StephensR+63.8+15.4

DimmitD+39.1+36.1

McCullochR+61.2+12.2

TerryR+43.3+21.7

DawsonR+44.6+16.4

WardR+42.0+24.0

RefugioR+24.5+15.0

CarsonR+66.9+14.2

OchiltreeR+53.5+28.0

San SabaR+64.3+14.5

MasonR+52.2+12.7

MillsR+65.4+11.4

LynnR+55.7+14.6

DeltaR+55.2+14.5

ParmerR+45.4+24.7

KimbleR+63.3+14.3

PresidioD+53.3+23.1

MitchellR+60.2+11.1

La SalleD+16.8+37.4

BrooksD+40.5+30.9

YoakumR+37.7+33.1

SwisherR+44.5+18.8

WheelerR+72.2+12.4

ChildressR+61.8+14.1

FloydR+40.7+24.3

HaskellR+58.2+13.2

CastroR+40.2+17.9

HartleyR+68.1+15.2

HansfordR+64.2+20.6

RealR+56.4+10.4

CrosbyR+27.6+23.7

MartinR+58.9+16.7

BaileyR+34.6+26.5

FisherR+50.9+12.2

CokeR+67.2+12.4

Jim HoggD+50.4+42.1

WinklerR+39.2+31.3

ShackelfordR+73.3+8.8

DonleyR+66.4+11.8

HemphillR+56.1+19.6

KinneyR+28.7+21.7

BaylorR+65.6+11.3

GarzaR+56.1+16.4

SuttonR+47.6+19.4

DallamR+50.0+28.3

CraneR+40.1+32.5

Jeff DavisR+4.8+16.5

KnoxR+49.8+18.7

ConchoR+58.0+15.9

CrockettR+29.2+24.6

HardemanR+58.3+14.4

CollingsworthR+66.5+11.0

LipscombR+67.5+12.1

SchleicherR+44.9+19.5

CulbersonD+22.1+39.0

ArmstrongR+75.5+10.0

UptonR+54.4+22.6

HallR+61.0+12.3

EdwardsR+56.0+17.2

HudspethR+15.0+31.1

MenardR+49.9+16.6

DickensR+58.6+11.7

OldhamR+71.3+13.0

ShermanR+62.4+20.8

ReaganR+38.2+31.2

CochranR+36.0+29.7

IrionR+66.6+9.0

ThrockmortonR+69.9+13.4

BriscoeR+69.7+10.0

GlasscockR+78.8+9.4

CottleR+60.4+12.1

MotleyR+80.6+8.1

StonewallR+61.2+8.2

RobertsR+84.6+7.6

SterlingR+67.9+17.9

FoardR+53.1+12.2

McMullenR+72.2+12.2

KentR+63.3+12.9

TerrellR+38.9+16.1

BordenR+83.1+8.4

KenedyR+11.9+35.0

KingR+84.5+6.6

LovingR+61.2+17.2

Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

Money in this race

Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.

James TalaricoKen Paxton

$146.3M

Raised by the campaign

$22.3M

$136.4M

Spent by the campaign

$17.5M

$9.9M

Cash on hand

$4.8M

$38.9M

Outside spending for them

$94.7M

$99.1M

Outside spending against their opponent

$220.3M

$284.4M

All money helping them

$337.3M

Top funders

Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.

TEXAS PACFor Paxton, against Talarico		$181.9M
America PACFor Paxton, against Talarico		$47.3M
Lone Star Rising PACFor Talarico, against Paxton		$39.7M
MAGA INC.For Paxton, against Talarico		$37.7M
Texas ForeverFor Talarico, against Paxton		$27.5M
TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITYAgainst Paxton		$24.8M
LONE STAR LIBERTY PACFor Paxton, against Talarico		$20.8M
Lower Costs NowFor Talarico, against Paxton		$18.4M
DEFEND US PACAgainst Talarico		$10.5M

Show 1 more

Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.

Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET

Polls against the result

The final average had Talarico ahead by 3.2. Talarico won by 12.1: a 8.9-point miss toward Republicans.

Poll with Talarico ahead
Poll with Paxton ahead
Final polling average
Result

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Talarico	Paxton	Margin	Adjusted	Miss vs result	Grade	Release
Research Co.	Oct 31–Nov 2	450 LV	49	46	D+3	D+2.7	−9.1	A	researchco.ca ↗
Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored	Oct 31–Nov 1	1,089 LV	47.5	48.1	R+0.6	D+1.7	−12.7	B	thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	1,678 A	51.3	45.4	D+5.9	D+3.0	−6.2	A	atlasintel.org ↗
The New York Times/Siena UniversityMain question · in average	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,215 LV	50.2	43.1	D+7.1	D+6.9	−5.0	A	nytimes.com ↗
The New York Times/Siena UniversityMain question	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,215 RV	51.5	39.3	D+12.2	—	+0.1	A	nytimes.com ↗
Emerson College for Poll Vault	Oct 31–Nov 1	500 LV	49.8	48.4	D+1.4	D+2.0	−10.7	A+	pollvault.substack.com ↗
Kreate Strategies	Oct 27–Oct 30	900 LV	48	45	D+3	—	−9.1	—	kstrat.net ↗
YouGov	Oct 26–Oct 29	2,138 LV	51	47	D+4	D+3.4	−8.1	B	d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
Quantus Insights	Oct 26–Oct 28	1,207 LV	48.4	49.4	R+1	—	−13.1	—	quantusinsights.org ↗
ActiVote	Oct 22–Oct 28	400 LV	52.1	47.9	D+4.2	—	−7.9	A−	activote.net ↗
A2 Insights	Oct 23–Oct 27	631 LV	50.2	47.2	D+3	—	−9.1	—	drive.google.com ↗
SSRS for CNN	Oct 20–Oct 27	923 LV	49	43	D+6	—	−6.1	C	edition.cnn.com ↗
YouGov for 254 LabsMain question · in average	Oct 21–Oct 26	1,000 LV	51	43	D+8	—	−4.1	B	254labs.io ↗
Data for Progress	Oct 23–Oct 26	712 LV	49	45	D+4	—	−8.1	B	dataforprogress.org ↗
YouGov for 254 LabsMain question	Oct 21–Oct 26	1,000 RV	52	43	D+9	—	−3.1	B	254labs.io ↗
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	Oct 21–Oct 25	2,000 LV	49	47	D+2	—	−10.1	—	static1.squarespace.com ↗
ActiVote	Oct 17–Oct 21	400 LV	51	49	D+2	—	−10.1	A−	activote.net ↗
YouGov for Univision	Oct 13–Oct 21	1,000 RV	50	45	D+5	—	−7.1	B	univision.com ↗
Verasight for VoteHubfield: Talarico, Brown, Paxton · in average	Oct 1–Oct 20	601 LV	47.6	45.2	D+2.4	—	−9.7	—	cdn.votehub.com ↗
Verasight for VoteHubfield: Talarico, Brown, Paxton	Oct 1–Oct 20	601 RV	46.1	45.3	D+0.8	—	−11.3	—	cdn.votehub.com ↗
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question · in average	Oct 15–Oct 19	1,398 LV	49	49	Even	—	−12.1	B+	foxnews.com ↗
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question	Oct 15–Oct 19	2,011 RV	52	46	D+6	—	−6.1	B+	foxnews.com ↗
Emerson College for Nexstar	Oct 17–Oct 19	1,000 LV	49.37	47.83	D+1.5	—	−10.6	A+	emersoncollegepolling.com ↗
Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research	Oct 15–Oct 18	969 LV	51	47	D+4	—	−8.1	C+	texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com ↗
YouGov for CBS News	Oct 8–Oct 16	1,458 LV	51	49	D+2	—	−10.1	B	cbsnews.com ↗
Cor Strategies for Heritage ActionR-sponsored	Oct 10–Oct 15	1,409 LV	44	40	D+4	—	−8.1	—	dailysignal.com ↗
ActiVote	Sep 30–Oct 14	400 LV	51.9	48.1	D+3.8	—	−8.3	A−	activote.net ↗
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs	Oct 10–Oct 14	2,000 LV	48	46	D+2	—	−10.1	—	uh.edu ↗
InsiderAdvantage	Oct 13–Oct 14	1,200 LV	48.1	48.5	R+0.4	—	−12.5	B	insideradvantage.com ↗
GS Strategy Group for New River Strategies; Cook Political Report	Oct 9–Oct 13	934 LV	49	44	D+5	—	−7.1	B	cookpolitical.com ↗
Quantus Insights	Oct 9–Oct 11	854 LV	46.7	47.2	R+0.5	—	−12.6	—	quantusinsights.org ↗
Marist UniversityMain question · in average	Oct 8–Oct 11	1,196 LV	47	45	D+2	—	−10.1	B+	maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
Marist UniversityMain question	Oct 8–Oct 11	1,196 RV	48	44	D+4	—	−8.1	B+	maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored	Oct 6–Oct 8	1,086 LV	47.1	43.6	D+3.5	—	−8.6	B	thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
Siena College for ReconMR	Oct 5–Oct 8	617 LV	48	44	D+4	—	−8.1	A	reconmr.com ↗
YouGovMain question · in average	Sep 28–Oct 5	3,623 LV	50	44	D+6	—	−6.1	B	d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
YouGov for University of Texasfield: Talarico, Brown, Paxton	Sep 25–Oct 5	861 LV	50	47	D+3	—	−9.1	B	texaspolitics.utexas.edu ↗
The New York Times/Siena University	Sep 21–Sep 30	615 LV	50.8	45.09	D+5.7	—	−6.4	A	nytimes.com ↗
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question · in average	Sep 24–Sep 28	881 LV	51	49	D+2	—	−10.1	B+	foxnews.com ↗
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question	Sep 24–Sep 28	1,203 RV	53	46	D+7	—	−5.1	B+	foxnews.com ↗

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).

Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 2, 2026

Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)

Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.

James Talarico: 73%
Ken Paxton: 27%
Projected margin: D+3.4

How the forecast works →

The candidates

James Talarico (D)
State representative from the 50th district (2018–present)Ken Paxton (R)
Attorney general of Texas (2015–present)

Also on the ballot: Ted Brown (Libertarian), 1.9%; Avery Ayers (Other party), 0.0%; Jade Simmons (Other party), 0.0%; Bradford 'Brad' Hall (Nonpartisan), 0.0%; Zul Mohamed (Other party), 0.0%

Also on this ballot here

Governor	D+7.1
Lieutenant Governor	D+6.1
Attorney General	D+6.4
Comptroller	D+5.1

Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Texas Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET