Flipped from RepublicanCalledUnofficial results

Texas Attorney General

Name: Texas Attorney General
Start: 2026-11-03
Location: Texas

Attorney General · Texas

Nathan Johnson flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 6.4 points over Mayes Middleton.

Nathan JohnsonDemocrat · winner

52.4%5,133,629

Mayes MiddletonRepublican

45.9%4,502,442

Tom OxfordLibertarian

1.7%165,550

9,801,621 votes

Source: Texas Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET

Where the race moved

Against the 2024 presidential vote

Every county, 2024 to 2026

Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Johnson compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 254 of 254 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Starr, +66.0 points.

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

The seat's recent races

Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)

By county

CountyShareMarginShift

HarrisD+27.8+22.2

DallasD+40.8+18.7

TarrantD+13.7+18.8

BexarD+30.2+20.5

TravisD+52.8+13.7

CollinD+5.0+16.1

DentonD+1.9+15.0

Fort BendD+22.3+20.7

Show 246 more

WilliamsonD+13.8+16.2

MontgomeryR+28.0+17.4

El PasoD+42.8+27.7

HidalgoD+42.3+45.2

BrazoriaEven+19.7

GalvestonR+11.6+15.8

HaysD+26.1+20.5

BellR+1.1+15.1

LubbockR+23.2+16.3

CameronD+34.3+40.1

NuecesD+6.6+18.1

ComalR+34.6+10.9

SmithR+29.5+15.4

EllisR+10.0+20.9

McLennanR+16.0+14.8

BrazosR+1.7+23.1

ParkerR+56.8+9.5

JeffersonD+9.6+18.5

GuadalupeR+12.1+17.4

JohnsonR+33.1+18.2

KaufmanR+3.3+24.5

WebbD+43.8+45.9

RockwallR+27.9+12.8

GraysonR+42.6+11.5

RandallR+47.6+12.8

MidlandR+44.0+16.4

TaylorR+38.1+11.7

GreggR+24.7+17.5

HuntR+39.8+15.7

BastropD+4.7+23.1

Tom GreenR+33.1+14.9

WichitaR+29.6+14.4

HendersonR+52.2+11.2

WiseR+57.4+12.7

HoodR+58.0+8.0

EctorR+24.1+28.7

VictoriaR+28.1+14.4

BowieR+36.1+12.4

AngelinaR+35.0+16.9

OrangeR+54.2+12.4

KendallR+49.0+6.7

PotterR+25.2+19.2

LibertyR+32.9+28.7

BurnetR+45.5+10.2

HarrisonR+38.0+12.5

WallerR+6.8+18.2

KerrR+43.9+10.4

Van ZandtR+65.0+9.7

WilsonR+42.1+11.5

WalkerR+24.3+15.6

NacogdochesR+18.8+20.0

MedinaR+27.3+15.4

HardinR+66.1+9.7

San PatricioR+17.6+18.8

WoodR+63.9+5.9

ChambersR+51.7+13.9

CoryellR+25.4+15.2

PolkR+50.1+8.8

RuskR+45.0+14.3

CookeR+56.6+10.3

CherokeeR+48.0+14.6

LamarR+50.7+10.2

NavarroR+34.7+17.0

UpshurR+60.4+10.6

WashingtonR+47.2+7.3

AndersonR+50.1+11.7

CaldwellD+10.4+24.8

GillespieR+52.3+8.6

AtascosaR+21.4+21.8

ErathR+54.1+13.8

HopkinsR+51.1+13.4

HillR+52.5+11.8

FanninR+56.8+10.5

BrownR+66.3+7.6

AustinR+52.4+10.1

WhartonR+39.5+12.3

JasperR+55.9+10.6

GrimesR+49.1+11.2

LlanoR+56.2+4.6

MaverickD+35.6+54.1

Val VerdeD+4.6+31.2

FayetteR+51.7+9.6

StarrD+50.0+65.9

CassR+58.2+7.5

MatagordaR+35.2+15.4

AransasR+48.0+7.7

Palo PintoR+55.3+11.8

San JacintoR+54.6+10.7

Jim WellsD+12.7+28.2

BanderaR+56.3+5.5

LampasasR+50.5+9.0

TitusR+29.4+25.2

MontagueR+71.1+6.5

MilamR+45.8+11.5

PanolaR+55.8+10.6

LavacaR+70.0+6.0

ColoradoR+48.0+9.1

UvaldeR+7.4+26.0

KlebergD+8.8+21.4

BurlesonR+53.1+9.8

BosqueR+59.3+8.0

BlancoR+46.4+5.9

HaleR+35.8+22.1

ShelbyR+50.8+13.7

HoustonR+50.0+5.3

FreestoneR+54.9+11.4

LimestoneR+42.7+14.1

TylerR+66.4+7.1

LeonR+69.9+6.8

HowardR+46.6+16.2

BeeR+18.1+21.8

RobertsonR+38.1+13.9

LeeR+47.9+12.4

GonzalesR+36.2+18.5

YoungR+68.0+8.3

HockleyR+51.5+14.8

EastlandR+68.0+9.6

CalhounR+37.6+14.5

DeWittR+58.7+8.3

HutchinsonR+66.2+10.9

TrinityR+58.9+8.1

GrayR+64.0+13.1

CallahanR+70.5+7.1

JonesR+62.9+10.1

DuvalD+39.0+49.0

ComancheR+64.0+10.0

RainsR+66.7+6.3

JacksonR+59.6+11.1

FallsR+34.1+10.6

GainesR+68.7+14.0

ClayR+71.9+7.6

WillacyD+31.6+34.9

MadisonR+52.3+12.1

SomervellR+64.1+6.4

CampR+39.1+14.4

SabineR+72.3+6.2

NewtonR+58.8+7.8

FranklinR+60.6+8.3

Red RiverR+52.5+9.2

MorrisR+40.3+10.8

ScurryR+63.9+9.6

AndrewsR+51.5+21.1

MooreR+38.1+29.1

ArcherR+74.0+5.3

KarnesR+43.6+14.6

Live OakR+61.7+7.9

MarionR+44.3+8.2

BrewsterD+7.6+20.2

NolanR+47.6+11.5

FrioD+5.3+29.9

HamiltonR+65.3+5.7

Deaf SmithR+23.5+28.2

JackR+74.7+7.6

WilbargerR+48.7+11.8

GoliadR+51.1+9.1

LambR+51.4+12.9

PecosR+17.7+27.2

ColemanR+74.5+4.3

RunnelsR+69.8+7.3

San AugustineR+43.0+13.3

ReevesR+0.4+36.5

ZapataD+37.5+59.9

ZavalaD+46.7+32.2

StephensR+70.4+8.8

McCullochR+65.4+8.0

TerryR+48.5+16.5

DawsonR+48.4+12.6

WardR+48.2+17.9

DimmitD+37.0+34.0

RefugioR+29.2+10.3

CarsonR+74.1+7.0

OchiltreeR+58.4+23.1

San SabaR+69.9+8.8

MasonR+58.3+6.6

MillsR+69.9+6.9

LynnR+61.6+8.7

DeltaR+60.9+8.9

KimbleR+71.1+6.4

ParmerR+48.0+22.1

PresidioD+51.9+21.7

MitchellR+63.2+8.2

YoakumR+47.0+23.8

BrooksD+38.1+28.4

SwisherR+51.8+11.5

ChildressR+68.2+7.8

WheelerR+78.6+6.0

La SalleD+8.9+29.4

FloydR+47.6+17.3

HaskellR+64.4+7.1

HartleyR+72.9+10.5

CastroR+49.3+8.8

RealR+61.3+5.6

HansfordR+72.1+12.8

MartinR+64.2+11.5

CrosbyR+35.0+16.3

FisherR+56.0+7.1

BaileyR+41.2+19.9

CokeR+73.3+6.3

WinklerR+45.8+24.7

ShackelfordR+81.2+1.0

Jim HoggD+50.8+42.5

DonleyR+73.8+4.3

HemphillR+63.7+12.0

BaylorR+70.5+6.4

KinneyR+34.9+15.5

GarzaR+62.7+9.8

SuttonR+53.3+13.7

DallamR+56.0+22.3

ConchoR+65.6+8.3

KnoxR+55.7+12.7

Jeff DavisR+12.2+9.1

CraneR+48.5+24.1

CrockettR+38.8+15.0

HardemanR+64.9+7.8

CollingsworthR+73.1+4.5

LipscombR+72.4+7.2

SchleicherR+50.3+14.2

ArmstrongR+80.3+5.1

UptonR+62.0+15.0

HallR+66.1+7.2

HudspethR+19.1+27.0

CulbersonD+16.3+33.2

MenardR+57.1+9.3

EdwardsR+63.5+9.7

DickensR+66.9+3.4

OldhamR+78.2+6.1

ShermanR+71.1+12.0

ReaganR+48.3+21.2

CochranR+47.1+18.7

IrionR+73.0+2.6

ThrockmortonR+77.1+6.3

BriscoeR+74.7+5.0

GlasscockR+84.6+3.6

CottleR+63.8+8.6

MotleyR+83.9+4.9

StonewallR+63.5+5.9

RobertsR+91.6+0.6

SterlingR+74.9+11.0

FoardR+57.8+7.5

KentR+68.5+7.7

McMullenR+78.1+6.3

TerrellR+44.8+10.3

BordenR+90.4+1.0

KenedyR+18.4+28.4

KingR+87.0+4.2

LovingR+60.9+17.4

Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

Polls against the result

The final average had Middleton ahead by 2.4. Johnson won by 6.4: a 8.8-point miss toward Republicans.

Poll with Johnson ahead
Poll with Middleton ahead
Final polling average
Result

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Johnson	Middleton	Margin	Adjusted	Miss vs result	Grade	Release
Texas Southern University	Oct 21–Oct 25	2,000 LV	45	49	R+4	R+2.2	−10.4	—	wfaa.com ↗
Texas Public Opinion Research	Oct 15–Oct 18	969 LV	48	50	R+2	R+2.4	−8.4	—	texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com ↗
University of Houston	Oct 10–Oct 14	2,000 LV	42	47	R+5	R+3.4	−11.4	—	uh.edu ↗
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project	Sep 25–Oct 5	861 LV	48	47	D+1	D+1.2	−5.4	—	texaspolitics.utexas.edu ↗
Stratus IntelligenceR-sponsored	Sep 22–Sep 24	865 LV	42	47	R+5	R+2.1	−11.4	—	politico.com ↗
Texas Public Opinion Research	Sep 19–Sep 22	1,007 LV	43	46	R+3	—	−9.4	—	texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com ↗
Texas Southern University	Sep 15–Sep 19	1,800 LV	42	47	R+5	R+3.4	−11.4	—	static1.squarespace.com ↗
Siena College for ReconMR	Sep 8–Sep 11	614 LV	44	45	R+1	—	−7.4	A	reconmr.com ↗
Texas Public Opinion Research	Aug 21–Aug 24	1,000 LV	41	44	R+3	—	−9.4	—	texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com ↗
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project	Aug 5–Aug 13	1,200 RV	35	40	R+5	—	−11.4	—	texaspolitics.utexas.edu ↗
Siena College for Texas A&M University, ReconMR	Jul 27–Jul 30	619 LV	44	46	R+2	—	−8.4	A	static.politico.com ↗
Texas Southern University	Jul 27–Jul 30	1,200 LV	41	46	R+5	—	−11.4	—	static1.squarespace.com ↗
Texas Public Opinion Research	Jul 15–Jul 17	1,048 LV	38	39	R+1	—	−7.4	—	texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com ↗
YouGov for University of Texas	Jun 5–Jun 12	1,200 RV	36	41	R+5	—	−11.4	B	texaspolitics.utexas.edu ↗
Texas A&M University/ReconMR	Jun 1–Jun 4	807 LV	40	45	R+5	—	−11.4	—	reconmr.com ↗
Texas Public Opinion Research	May 27–May 28	1,670 LV	39	44	R+5	—	−11.4	—	drive.google.com ↗

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).

Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 25, 2026

Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)

Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.

Nathan Johnson: 39%
Mayes Middleton: 61%
Projected margin: R+1.6

How the forecast works →

The candidates

Nathan Johnson (D)
State senator from the 16th district (2019–present)Mayes Middleton (R)
State senator from the 11th district (2023–present)

Also on the ballot: Tom Oxford (Libertarian), 1.7%

Also on this ballot here

U.S. Senate	D+12.1
Governor	D+7.1
Lieutenant Governor	D+6.1
Comptroller	D+5.1

Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Texas Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET