U.S. Senate in Michigan
U.S. Senate · Michigan
Abdul El-Sayed held the seat for Democrats, winning by 7.0 points over Mike Rogers.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 2:10 AM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward El-Sayed compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 83 of 83 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Wayne, +14.3 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 75 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| WinSenateFor El-Sayed, against Rogers | $46.5M | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Rogers, against El-Sayed | $35.3M | |
| GLCF, INC.For Rogers, against El-Sayed | $30.5M | |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE ActionFor Rogers, against El-Sayed | $27.1M | |
| UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT (UDP)Against El-Sayed | $20.9M | |
| TFMFor Rogers, against El-Sayed | $15.1M | |
| America PACAgainst El-Sayed | $5.5M | |
| LCV Victory FundFor El-Sayed | $5.4M | |
| Lower Costs NowAgainst Rogers | $5M | |
| Defend The VoteAgainst Rogers | $4.6M | |
| The Sentinel Action FundFor Rogers | $3.7M |
Show 3 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026; FEC, through Oct 22, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had El-Sayed ahead by 4.6. El-Sayed won by 7.0: a 2.4-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with El-Sayed ahead
- Poll with Rogers ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | El-Sayed | Rogers | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies | Oct 31–Nov 2 | 1,001 LV | 51 | 49 | D+2 | D+4.6 | −5.0 | B+ | johnzogbystrategies.com ↗ |
| Research Co. | Oct 30–Nov 1 | 450 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 | — | −5.0 | A | researchco.ca ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 23–Nov 1 | 1,011 LV | 52.6 | 41.6 | D+11 | D+11.0 | +4.0 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | Nov 1–Nov 1 | 500 LV | 51.2 | 45.2 | D+6 | D+6.8 | −1.0 | A+ | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now AdvocacyD-sponsored | Oct 30–Nov 1 | 510 LV | 51 | 41 | D+10 | — | +3.0 | B− | concordpublicopinionpartners.org ↗ |
| AtlasIntel | Oct 28–Nov 1 | 1,316 LV | 53.5 | 46.4 | D+7.1 | D+4.3 | +0.1 | A | pollstergraph.com ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Oct 31–Nov 1 | 1,087 LV | 47.1 | 45.9 | D+1.2 | D+3.6 | −5.8 | B | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| YouGov | Oct 26–Oct 29 | 2,088 LV | 51 | 47 | D+4 | D+3.4 | −3.0 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| SSRS for CNN | Oct 20–Oct 27 | 768 LV | 49 | 42 | D+7 | — | 0.0 | C | edition.cnn.com ↗ |
| Mitchell Research & Communications for CBS Detroit | Oct 26–Oct 27 | 636 LV | 51 | 44 | D+7 | — | 0.0 | B+ | cbsnews.com ↗ |
| Upswing Research for Demand JusticeD-sponsored | Oct 24–Oct 25 | 505 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 | — | −2.0 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Data for Progress | Oct 23–Oct 25 | 622 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | — | −3.0 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Verasight for Michigan State University Office for Survey Research | Oct 8–Oct 23 | 1,383 LV | 51.4 | 42.2 | D+9.2 | — | +2.2 | — | polisci.msu.edu ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 21–Oct 22 | 1,200 LV | 47.2 | 46 | D+1.2 | — | −5.8 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| Glengariff Group for Detroit News, WDIV-TV | Oct 19–Oct 22 | 600 LV | 51.4 | 45.1 | D+6.3 | — | −0.7 | B | detroitnews.com ↗ |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGovMain question · in average | Oct 2–Oct 19 | 836 LV | 48 | 45.5 | D+2.5 | — | −4.5 | B | ippsr.msu.edu ↗ |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGovMain question | Oct 2–Oct 19 | 1,000 A | 44.8 | 41 | D+3.8 | — | −3.2 | B | ippsr.msu.edu ↗ |
| Marist UniversityMain question · in average | Oct 15–Oct 18 | 1,185 LV | 50 | 48 | D+2 | — | −5.0 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Marist UniversityMain question | Oct 15–Oct 18 | 1,185 RV | 52 | 45 | D+7 | — | 0.0 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 9–Oct 10 | 1,200 LV | 47.8 | 45.5 | D+2.3 | — | −4.7 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| The Tyson Group for Alliance for a Better FutureR-sponsored | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 600 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 | — | −9.0 | B | breitbart.com ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | Oct 5–Oct 6 | 744 LV | 48.4 | 47.2 | D+1.2 | — | −5.8 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| YouGov | Sep 22–Oct 4 | 3,947 LV | 49 | 48 | D+1 | — | −6.0 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Oct 1–Oct 1 | 682 LV | 45.6 | 41.4 | D+4.2 | — | −2.8 | B+ | cbsnews.com ↗ |
| Z to A Research for Rust Belt RisingD-sponsored | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 483 LV | 49 | 42 | D+7 | — | 0.0 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 1,085 LV | 46.9 | 45.1 | D+1.8 | — | −5.2 | B | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question · in average | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 1,028 LV | 50 | 49 | D+1 | — | −6.0 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox NewsMain question | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 1,203 RV | 51 | 48 | D+3 | — | −4.0 | B+ | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Marist University | Sep 24–Sep 27 | 1,235 RV | 51 | 44 | D+7 | — | 0.0 | B+ | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy for Public First ActionMain question · in average | Sep 20–Sep 27 | 800 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 | — | −3.0 | — | static01.nyt.com ↗ |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy for Public First Actionfield: Long, El-Sayed, Marsh, Christensen, Kristy, Rogers | Sep 20–Sep 27 | 800 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 | — | −2.0 | — | static01.nyt.com ↗ |
| The Tyson Group for Alliance for a Better FutureR-sponsored | Sep 24–Sep 27 | 600 LV | 44 | 43 | D+1 | — | −6.0 | B | breitbart.com ↗ |
| Big Data Poll for Public Polling ProjectMain question · in average | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 678 LV | 46.7 | 42.1 | D+4.6 | — | −2.4 | C | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| Big Data Poll for Public Polling ProjectMain question | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 725 RV | 45.4 | 41 | D+4.4 | — | −2.6 | C | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| co/efficientMain question · in average | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 843 LV | 50 | 50 | Even | — | −7.0 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| co/efficientfield: Long, El-Sayed, Marsh, Christensen, Rogers | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 843 LV | 45 | 45 | Even | — | −7.0 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| GBAO for Senate Majority PACD-sponsored | Sep 19–Sep 22 | 800 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 | — | −3.0 | C | politico.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 15–Sep 22 | 605 LV | 49.45 | 44.5 | D+5 | — | −2.0 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Cygnal/Beacon Research for Michigan Enjoyer | Sep 18–Sep 21 | 600 LV | 45 | 40 | D+5 | — | −2.0 | C | enjoyer.com ↗ |
| Suffolk University | Sep 16–Sep 20 | 500 LV | 46.8 | 39.6 | D+7.2 | — | +0.2 | A | suffolk.edu ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 2, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Abdul El-Sayed
- 86%
- Mike Rogers
- 14%
- Projected margin
- D+5.3
The candidates
Former Wayne County health director (2023–2025) and candidate for governor in 2018Mike Rogers (R)
Former U.S. representative from MI-8 (2001–2015) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024
Also on the ballot: Lydia Christensen (Libertarian), 1.0%; Tim Long (Constitution), 0.6%; Douglas P. Marsh (Green), 0.3%; Walter P. Kristy (Natural Law), 0.1%; Write-in (Nonpartisan), 0.1%
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | D+10.8 |
| Attorney General | D+8.2 |
| Secretary of State | D+10.1 |
Results within this state. Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Changes to this page
- · Race called for El-Sayed.