Arizona Governor
Governor · Arizona
Katie Hobbs won re-election by 13.1 points over Andy Biggs.
Source: Arizona Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Hobbs compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 15 of 15 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Maricopa, +19.6 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 7 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Hobbs ahead by 9.2. Hobbs won by 13.1: a 3.9-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Hobbs ahead
- Poll with Biggs ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Hobbs | Biggs | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse for Elijah Norton's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 28–Oct 29 | 500 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 | D+9.5 | −8.1 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Oct 26–Oct 28 | 511 LV | 51 | 45 | D+6 | D+6.0 | −7.1 | A | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| Kreate Strategies for American EncoreR-sponsored | Oct 25–Oct 27 | 900 LV | 48.27 | 43.14 | D+5.1 | D+9.6 | −8.0 | — | kstrat.net ↗ |
| HighGround, Inc. | Oct 21–Oct 25 | 400 LV | 51.5 | 39.3 | D+12.2 | D+9.4 | −0.9 | B− | 12news.com ↗ |
| GrayHouse for Friends of Elijah NortonR-sponsored | Oct 18–Oct 20 | 550 LV | 51 | 45 | D+6 | D+10.4 | −7.1 | — | x.com ↗ |
| GrayHouse for Friends of Elijah NortonR-sponsored | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 550 LV | 50 | 44 | D+6 | — | −7.1 | — | grayhouse.com ↗ |
| HighGround, Inc. | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 400 LV | 50.5 | 33.7 | D+16.8 | — | +3.7 | B− | azhighground.com ↗ |
| Wick | Oct 3–Oct 6 | 1,513 LV | 48.9 | 43.2 | D+5.7 | D+10.7 | −7.4 | B− | wick.io ↗ |
| BSP Research for Arizona State University Center for Latina/os and American Politics Research | Sep 18–Oct 4 | 1,300 RV | 47 | 34 | D+13 | — | −0.1 | C | dropbox.com ↗ |
| Lake Research Partners for Ballot Initiative Strategy Center | Sep 16–Sep 30 | 600 RV | 56 | 33 | D+23 | — | +9.9 | B+ | ballot.org ↗ |
| NextGenP | Aug 17–Aug 19 | 1,378 RV | 39 | 37.5 | D+1.5 | — | −11.6 | — | nxtgenp.com ↗ |
| HighGround, Inc. | Aug 15–Aug 18 | 400 LV | 49.5 | 34.3 | D+15.2 | — | +2.1 | B− | azhighground.com ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | Aug 14–Aug 17 | 780 LV | 49.1 | 43.2 | D+5.9 | — | −7.2 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| Kreate Strategies for American EncoreR-sponsored | Aug 13–Aug 16 | 900 LV | 45 | 40 | D+5 | — | −8.1 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Stealth Analytics | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 530 LV | 43 | 38 | D+5 | — | −8.1 | — | stealth-analytics.com ↗ |
| Noble Predictive Insightsfield: Hobbs, Lombardo, Hourihan, Biggs · in average | Aug 10–Aug 13 | 923 LV | 48.4 | 35.42 | D+13 | — | −0.1 | A | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| Noble Predictive Insightsfield: Hobbs, Lombardo, Hourihan, Biggs | Aug 10–Aug 13 | 1,040 RV | 46.18 | 32.34 | D+13.8 | — | +0.7 | A | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| GrayHouse for Elijah Norton's campaignR-sponsored | Aug 9–Aug 11 | 600 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 | — | −9.1 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Tarrance Group for Democracy Defense Project | Jul 27–Jul 30 | 600 LV | 52 | 48 | D+4 | — | −9.1 | A+ | democracydefensefoundation.org ↗ |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP | Jul 26–Jul 28 | 913 LV | 52 | 44 | D+8 | — | −5.1 | B | aarp.org ↗ |
| Noble Predictive Insights | May 5–May 7 | 996 RV | 41 | 37 | D+4 | — | −9.1 | A | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| TIPP Insights for League of American WorkersR-sponsoredMain question · in average | Apr 20–Apr 24 | 1,159 LV | 48.38 | 37.57 | D+10.8 | — | −2.3 | A− | tippinsights.com ↗ |
| TIPP Insights for League of American WorkersR-sponsoredMain question | Apr 20–Apr 24 | 1,501 RV | 44.7 | 34.64 | D+10.1 | — | −3.0 | A− | tippinsights.com ↗ |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Feb 23–Feb 26 | 1,023 RV | 42 | 37 | D+5 | — | −8.1 | A | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| NextGenP | Dec 15–Dec 17 | 2,725 RV | 51 | 32 | D+19 | — | +5.9 | — | nxtgenp.com ↗ |
| Emerson College | Nov 8–Nov 10 | 850 RV | 44.1 | 43.4 | D+0.7 | — | −12.4 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Aug 11–Aug 18 | 948 RV | 39 | 37 | D+2 | — | −11.1 | A | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 29, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Katie Hobbs
- 95%
- Andy Biggs
- 5%
- Projected margin
- D+9.6
The candidates
Incumbent governor (2023–present)Andy Biggs (R)
U.S. representative from AZ-5 (2017–present)
Also on the ballot: Risa Lombardo (Green), 0.9%; Teri Hourihan (No Labels), 0.9%; Write-in (Other party), 0.1%; Unassigned Write-in (Other party), 0.0%; Andy Biggs (Republican), 0.0%; Andy Biggs (Republican), 0.0%
Also on this ballot here
| Attorney General | D+11.0 |
| Secretary of State | D+11.2 |
| Treasurer | D+7.7 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Arizona Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 12:53 PM ET