Arizona Treasurer
Treasurer · Arizona
Nick Mansour flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 7.7 points over Elijah Norton.
Source: Arizona Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Mansour compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 15 of 15 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Maricopa, +14.3 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 7 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Mansour ahead by 2.9. Mansour won by 7.7: a 4.8-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Mansour ahead
- Poll with Norton ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Mansour | Norton | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse for Norton's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 28–Oct 29 | 500 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1 | D+3.2 | −8.7 | — | x.com ↗ |
| HighGround, Inc. | Oct 21–Oct 25 | 400 LV | 47 | 41 | D+6 | D+2.8 | −1.7 | B− | azhighground.com ↗ |
| GrayHouse for Norton's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 18–Oct 20 | 550 LV | 46 | 50 | R+4 | Even | −11.7 | — | data.ddhq.io ↗ |
| HighGround, Inc. | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 400 LV | 45 | 35 | D+10 | D+8.6 | +2.3 | B− | azhighground.com ↗ |
| GrayHouse for Norton's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 550 LV | 41 | 43 | R+2 | D+2.1 | −9.7 | — | grayhouse.com ↗ |
| HighGround, Inc. | Aug 15–Aug 18 | 400 LV | 42 | 39 | D+3 | D+0.7 | −4.7 | B− | azhighground.com ↗ |
| GrayHouseR-sponsored | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 600 LV | 39 | 41 | R+2 | — | −9.7 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Stealth Analytics | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 530 LV | 35 | 39 | R+4 | — | −11.7 | — | stealth-analytics.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 29, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Nick Mansour
- 71%
- Elijah Norton
- 29%
- Projected margin
- D+3.1
The candidates
Former nursing college CEOElijah Norton (R)
Former treasurer of the Arizona Republican Party and candidate for AZ-1 in 2022
Also on the ballot: Write-in (Other party), 0.1%; Unassigned Write-in (Other party), 0.0%
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | D+13.1 |
| Attorney General | D+11.0 |
| Secretary of State | D+11.2 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Arizona Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 12:53 PM ET