2026 election for Arizona Secretary of State
Secretary of State · Arizona
Adrian Fontes (D) won re-election with 54.8% of the vote, defeating Alexander Kolodin (R) by 11.2 points.
Source: Arizona Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Fontes compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 15 of 15 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Maricopa, +18.4 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 7 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Fontes ahead by 8.3. Fontes won by 11.2: a 2.9-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Fontes ahead
- Poll with Kolodin ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Fontes | Kolodin | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse for Elijah Norton's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 28–Oct 29 | 500 LV | 50 | 44 | D+6 | D+10.6 | −5.2 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Oct 26–Oct 28 | 511 LV | 50 | 44 | D+6 | D+6.1 | −5.2 | A | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| HighGround, Inc. | Oct 21–Oct 25 | 400 LV | 50 | 38 | D+12 | D+9.6 | +0.8 | B− | azhighground.com ↗ |
| HighGround, Inc. | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 400 LV | 45 | 34 | D+11 | D+10.0 | −0.2 | B− | azhighground.com ↗ |
| GrayHouse for Elijah Norton's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 550 LV | 48 | 42 | D+6 | D+11.2 | −5.2 | — | grayhouse.com ↗ |
| Equis Research | Sep 1–Sep 9 | 1,214 RV | 46 | 44 | D+2 | D+5.3 | −9.2 | — | weareequis.us ↗ |
| Arizona State University | Aug 18–Sep 4 | 1,300 RV | 39 | 35 | D+4 | — | −7.2 | — | dropbox.com ↗ |
| HighGround, Inc. | Aug 15–Aug 18 | 400 LV | 43 | 35 | D+8 | — | −3.2 | B− | azhighground.com ↗ |
| GrayHouseR-sponsored | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 600 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 | — | −7.2 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Stealth Analytics | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 530 LV | 39 | 38 | D+1 | — | −10.2 | — | stealth-analytics.com ↗ |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Aug 10–Aug 13 | 923 LV | 41 | 35 | D+6 | — | −5.2 | A | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 29, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Adrian Fontes
- 94%
- Alexander Kolodin
- 6%
- Projected margin
- D+8.6
The candidates
Incumbent secretary of stateAlexander Kolodin (R)
State representative
Also on the ballot: Duwayne Collier (Green), 1.5%; Write-in (Other party), 0.0%; Unassigned Write-in (Other party), 0.0%
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | D+13.1 |
| Attorney General | D+11.0 |
| Treasurer | D+7.7 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Arizona Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 12:53 PM ET