U.S. Senate in North Carolina
U.S. Senate · North Carolina
Roy Cooper flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 19.6 points over Michael Whatley.
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Cooper compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 100 of 100 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Johnston, +27.5 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 92 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| WinSenateAgainst Whatley | $21.6M | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Whatley, against Cooper | $10.4M | |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE ActionFor Whatley, against Cooper | $6.1M | |
| Planned Parenthood Votes North Carolina (FEC)For Cooper | $1.2M | |
| NC First PACAgainst Cooper | $1.2M | |
| AB PACFor Cooper | $948.4K | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Whatley | $500.5K | |
| EDF Action VotesAgainst Whatley | $500.4K | |
| NRDC Action VotesAgainst Whatley | $500K | |
| WORKERS VOTEFor Cooper | $490.6K | |
| Care in Action PACFor Cooper | $359.8K |
Show 3 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Cooper ahead by 11.7. Cooper won by 19.6: a 7.9-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Cooper ahead
- Poll with Whatley ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Cooper | Whatley | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 28–Nov 1 | 1,459 LV | 56.4 | 41.5 | D+14.9 | D+12.4 | −4.7 | A | pollstergraph.com ↗ |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | Oct 26–Oct 29 | 1,041 LV | 54 | 44.9 | D+9.1 | D+11.2 | −10.5 | B+ | surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com ↗ |
| YouGov | Oct 26–Oct 29 | 2,123 LV | 55 | 44 | D+11 | D+10.4 | −8.6 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Quantus InsightsMain question · in average | Oct 24–Oct 25 | 722 LV | 51.7 | 42.9 | D+8.8 | D+12.3 | −10.8 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| Quantus Insightsfield: Cooper, Dublin, Bray, Whatley | Oct 24–Oct 25 | 722 LV | 52.4 | 43.4 | D+9 | — | −10.6 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| ActiVote | Oct 8–Oct 20 | 400 LV | 56.9 | 43.1 | D+13.8 | — | −5.8 | A− | activote.net ↗ |
| Harper Polling for Carolina JournalMain question · in average | Oct 18–Oct 20 | 600 LV | 51.6 | 42 | D+9.6 | D+9.1 | −10.0 | B+ | carolinajournal.com ↗ |
| Harper Polling for Carolina Journalfield: Cooper, Dublin, Bray, Whatley | Oct 18–Oct 20 | 600 LV | 49.4 | 39.1 | D+10.3 | — | −9.3 | B+ | carolinajournal.com ↗ |
| High Point University | Oct 1–Oct 20 | 620 LV | 54 | 40 | D+14 | — | −5.6 | B− | highpoint.edu ↗ |
| SurveyUSA for WRAL News, WSOC-TV | Oct 7–Oct 11 | 643 LV | 54 | 40 | D+14 | D+14.8 | −5.6 | A | wral.com ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Oct 8–Oct 10 | 1,091 LV | 48.8 | 40.9 | D+7.9 | — | −11.7 | B | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| YouGov for Elon Universityfield: Cooper, Dublin, Bray, Whatley · in average | Sep 29–Oct 8 | 560 LV | 54 | 43 | D+11 | — | −8.6 | B | eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗ |
| YouGov for Elon Universityfield: Cooper, Dublin, Bray, Whatley | Sep 29–Oct 8 | 747 A | 53 | 38 | D+15 | — | −4.6 | B | eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗ |
| YouGov for Elon Universityfield: Cooper, Dublin, Bray, Whatley | Sep 29–Oct 8 | 676 RV | 51 | 42 | D+9 | — | −10.6 | B | eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗ |
| Change Research for Carolina ForwardD-sponsored | Oct 1–Oct 7 | 829 LV | 50 | 40 | D+10 | — | −9.6 | B+ | docs.google.com ↗ |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | Sep 30–Oct 3 | 810 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 | — | −12.6 | B+ | surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com ↗ |
| Big Data Poll for Public Polling Projectfield: Cooper, Dublin, Bray, Whatley · in average | Sep 27–Sep 29 | 642 LV | 50.8 | 38.5 | D+12.3 | — | −7.3 | C | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| Big Data Poll for Public Polling Projectfield: Cooper, Dublin, Bray, Whatley | Sep 27–Sep 29 | 698 RV | 49.3 | 37.8 | D+11.5 | — | −8.1 | C | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 21–Sep 22 | 686 LV | 48.4 | 43.3 | D+5.1 | — | −14.5 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP | Sep 17–Sep 20 | 1,115 LV | 53 | 42 | D+11 | — | −8.6 | B | aarp.org ↗ |
| Opinion Diagnostics for Common Cause North Carolina | Sep 17–Sep 20 | 857 LV | 51.7 | 43.5 | D+8.2 | — | −11.4 | — | commoncause.org ↗ |
| YouGovMain question | Sep 15–Sep 18 | 3,864 RV | 52 | 41 | D+11 | — | −8.6 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| YouGovMain question · in average | Sep 15–Sep 18 | 3,742 LV | 53 | 41 | D+12 | — | −7.6 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| YouGovOther version | Sep 15–Sep 18 | 3,511 LV | 54 | 41 | D+13 | — | −6.6 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 16–Sep 17 | 1,200 LV | 48.4 | 42.5 | D+5.9 | — | −13.7 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| High Point University | Sep 6–Sep 16 | 706 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8 | — | −11.6 | B− | highpoint.edu ↗ |
| Harper Polling for Carolina Journal | Sep 13–Sep 15 | 608 LV | 49.2 | 34.1 | D+15.1 | — | −4.5 | B+ | carolinajournal.com ↗ |
| YouGov for Catawba College Center for N.C. Politics & Public Service | Sep 4–Sep 15 | 885 LV | 48 | 37 | D+11 | — | −8.6 | B | catawba.edu ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 10 | 1,084 LV | 48.2 | 42.3 | D+5.9 | — | −13.7 | B | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 675 LV | 51.7 | 43.6 | D+8.1 | — | −11.5 | B+ | surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com ↗ |
| YouGov for Elon Universityfield: Cooper, Dublin, Bray, Whatley · in average | Aug 21–Aug 31 | 565 LV | 49 | 38 | D+11 | — | −8.6 | B | eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗ |
| YouGov for Elon Universityfield: Cooper, Dublin, Bray, Whatley | Aug 21–Aug 31 | 677 RV | 49 | 36 | D+13 | — | −6.6 | B | eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗ |
| YouGov for Elon Universityfield: Cooper, Dublin, Bray, Whatley | Aug 21–Aug 31 | 800 A | 39 | 29 | D+10 | — | −9.6 | B | eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗ |
| High Point UniversityMain question | Aug 3–Aug 12 | 800 RV | 48 | 41 | D+7 | — | −12.6 | B− | highpoint.edu ↗ |
| High Point UniversityMain question · in average | Aug 3–Aug 12 | 660 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 | — | −14.6 | B− | highpoint.edu ↗ |
| Harper Polling for Carolina Journal | Aug 9–Aug 10 | 600 LV | 51.5 | 39 | D+12.5 | — | −7.1 | B+ | carolinajournal.com ↗ |
| Change Research for Carolina ForwardD-sponsored | Aug 3–Aug 6 | 915 LV | 50.05 | 42.93 | D+7.1 | — | −12.5 | B+ | carolinaforward.org ↗ |
| Change Research for Gary Pearce, Sam HuntD-sponsored | Jul 29–Aug 1 | 967 RV | 50 | 41 | D+9 | — | −10.6 | B+ | garypearcenc.substack.com ↗ |
| YouGov for Elon Universityfield: Cooper, Dublin, Bray, Whatley · in average | Jul 23–Jul 31 | 466 LV | 53 | 42 | D+11 | — | −8.6 | B | eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗ |
| YouGov for Elon Universityfield: Cooper, Dublin, Bray, Whatley | Jul 23–Jul 31 | 717 RV | 51 | 35 | D+16 | — | −3.6 | B | eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Roy Cooper
- 98%
- Michael Whatley
- 2%
- Projected margin
- D+11.2
The candidates
Former governor of North Carolina (2017–2025)Michael Whatley (R)
Former chair of the Republican National Committee (2024–2025)
Also on the ballot: Shannon Bray (Libertarian), 1.3%; Michael Dublin (Green), 0.9%