U.S. Senate in Idaho
U.S. Senate · Idaho
Jim Risch won re-election by 23.0 points over Todd Achilles.
Source: Idaho Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Achilles compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 44 of 44 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Bonneville, +25.0 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 36 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| FORWARD PARTY VICTORY FUND INCFor Achilles | $105K | |
| We The People IdahoAgainst Risch | $77.4K | |
| United Independents Campaign FundFor Achilles | $14.8K | |
| GOA VICTORY FUNDFor Risch | $9.2K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Risch ahead by 12.6. Risch won by 23.0: a 10.4-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Achilles ahead
- Poll with Risch ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Achilles | Risch | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VoteNexus for Knock Every Door PAC, Todd Achilles's campaign | Oct 21–Oct 22 | 700 LV | 43 | 49 | R+6 | R+6.4 | +17.0 | — | drive.google.com ↗ |
| Peak Insights for James Risch's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 13–Oct 15 | 500 LV | 27 | 54 | R+27 | R+22.3 | −4.0 | — | senatorrisch.com ↗ |
| Peak Insights for James Risch's campaignR-sponsored | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 500 LV | 24 | 49 | R+25 | R+23.2 | −2.0 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Peak Insights for James Risch's campaignR-sponsored | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 500 LV | 18 | 52 | R+34 | R+36.4 | −11.0 | — | x.com ↗ |
| The Bullfinch Group for Todd Achilles's campaignfield: Achilles, Loesby, Risch · in average | Aug 4–Aug 7 | 608 LV | 30 | 34 | R+4 | R+0.7 | +19.0 | C− | thebullfinchgroup.com ↗ |
| The Bullfinch Group for Todd Achilles's campaignfield: Achilles, Risch | Aug 4–Aug 7 | 608 LV | 38 | 33 | D+5 | — | +28.0 | C− | thebullfinchgroup.com ↗ |
| Change Research for John Stegner's campaign | Jul 28–Jul 30 | — LV | 21 | 45 | R+24 | R+37.1 | −1.0 | B+ | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| The Bullfinch Group for Todd Achilles's campaign | May 29–Jun 1 | 774 RV | 36 | 40 | R+4 | — | +19.0 | C− | thebullfinchgroup.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for Todd Achilles's campaign | Mar 16–Mar 17 | 639 RV | 34 | 48 | R+14 | — | +9.0 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 22, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Todd Achilles
- 2%
- Jim Risch
- 98%
- Projected margin
- R+15.4
The candidates
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | R+24.7 |
| Lieutenant Governor | R+27.0 |
| Attorney General | R+19.7 |
| Secretary of State | R+34.8 |
| Treasurer | R+31.0 |
| Comptroller | R+32.4 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Idaho Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 1:21 PM ET