Idaho Governor
Governor · Idaho
Brad Little won re-election by 24.7 points over Terri Pickens.
Source: Idaho Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Pickens compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 43 of 44 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Jerome, +22.0 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 36 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Little ahead by 23.9. Little won by 24.7: a 0.8-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Pickens ahead
- Poll with Little ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Pickens | Little | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VoteNexus for Knock Every Door PAC, Todd Achilles's campaign | Oct 21–Oct 22 | 700 LV | 30 | 49 | R+19 | R+23.9 | +5.7 | — | drive.google.com ↗ |
| Change Research for John Stegner's campaignfield: Pickens, Stegner, Little · in average | Jul 28–Jul 30 | 1,213 LV | 27 | 48 | R+21 | R+24.9 | +3.7 | B+ | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| Change Research for John Stegner's campaignfield: Stegner, Little | Jul 28–Jul 30 | 1,213 LV | — | 47 | — | — | — | B+ | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| Change Research for John Stegner's campaignfield: Pickens, Little | Jul 28–Jul 30 | 1,213 LV | 33 | 54 | R+21 | — | +3.7 | B+ | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 22, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Terri Pickens
- <1%
- Brad Little
- >99%
- Projected margin
- R+24.8
The candidates
Incumbent governor (2019–present)Terri Pickens (D)
Attorney and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2022John Stegner (I)
Former justice of the Idaho Supreme Court (2018–2023)
Also on the ballot: Paul Sand (Libertarian), 1.6%; Pro-Life (Constitution), 1.3%; Write-in (Other party), 0.2%; John Stegner (Independent), 0.0%
Also on this ballot here
| U.S. Senate | R+23.0 |
| Lieutenant Governor | R+27.0 |
| Attorney General | R+19.7 |
| Secretary of State | R+34.8 |
| Treasurer | R+31.0 |
| Comptroller | R+32.4 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Idaho Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 1:21 PM ET