U.S. Senate in Alaska
U.S. Senate · Alaska
Mary Peltola leads Dan S. Sullivan by 0.3 points. The race has not been called.
Top-four primaryRanked-choice voting
Source: Alaska Division of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Peltola compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 29 of 30 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Bethel Census Area, +42.5 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 22 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Other candidates' campaigns: Dan J. Sullivan $30.6K.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| North StarAgainst Sullivan | $16.1M | |
| LAST FRONTIER PACAgainst Peltola | $10.8M | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Sullivan, against Peltola | $9.5M | |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE ActionFor Sullivan, against Peltola | $7.8M | |
| Women VoteAgainst Sullivan | $5.6M | |
| WinSenateAgainst Sullivan | $4.7M | |
| MIDNIGHT SUN PACFor Peltola | $4.3M | |
| Forward AlaskaFor Peltola, against Sullivan | $3.8M | |
| 59 PACAgainst Peltola | $3.5M | |
| Duty and CountryAgainst Sullivan | $3.1M | |
| Lower Costs NowFor Peltola | $2.3M | |
| Alaska Values PACAgainst Sullivan | $1.9M | |
| America PACAgainst Peltola | $916.7K |
Show 5 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC independent expenditures; FEC campaign filingsUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Peltola ahead by 1.9. Peltola leads by 0.3: a 1.6-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Peltola ahead
- Poll with Sullivan ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Peltola | Sullivan | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 28–Nov 1 | 522 LV | 50.1 | 44.6 | D+5.5 | D+2.6 | +5.2 | A | pollstergraph.com ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantageMain question · in average | Oct 31–Nov 1 | 1,200 LV | 48.3 | 48.1 | D+0.2 | D+1.1 | −0.1 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantagefield: Peltola, Sullivan | Oct 31–Nov 1 | 1,200 LV | 50.1 | 49.9 | D+0.2 | — | −0.1 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 23–Oct 30 | 610 LV | 47.6 | 46.2 | D+1.4 | D+0.8 | +1.1 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFinal round · in average | Oct 26–Oct 29 | 1,326 LV | 50.8 | 49.2 | D+1.6 | D+1.2 | +1.3 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFirst round | Oct 26–Oct 29 | 1,326 LV | 47.7 | 45.9 | D+1.8 | — | +1.5 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| Data for ProgressFinal round · in average | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 671 LV | 51 | 49 | D+2 | D+1.0 | +1.7 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Data for ProgressFirst round | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 675 LV | 49 | 46 | D+3 | — | +2.7 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Data for ProgressOther version | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 694 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | — | +2.7 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantageMain question · in average | Oct 9–Oct 10 | 1,200 LV | 48.2 | 42.6 | D+5.6 | D+7.1 | +5.3 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantagefield: Peltola, Sullivan | Oct 9–Oct 10 | 1,200 LV | 50.1 | 48 | D+2.1 | — | +1.8 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFinal round · in average | Oct 1–Oct 3 | 1,512 LV | 51 | 49 | D+2 | — | +1.7 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFirst round | Oct 1–Oct 3 | 1,512 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2 | — | +1.7 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 24–Oct 1 | 504 LV | 50.07 | 43.07 | D+7 | — | +6.7 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Quantus InsightsMain question · in average | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 758 LV | 46.5 | 46.8 | R+0.3 | — | −0.6 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| Quantus Insightsfield: Peltola, Sullivan | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 758 LV | 46.2 | 46.5 | R+0.3 | — | −0.6 | — | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 1,079 LV | 45.5 | 46.8 | R+1.3 | — | −1.6 | B | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| co/efficientMain question · in average | Sep 14–Sep 17 | 799 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | — | −2.3 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| co/efficientfield: Peltola, Sullivan | Sep 14–Sep 17 | 799 LV | 46 | 49 | R+3 | — | −3.3 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFinal round · in average | Sep 10–Sep 12 | 1,352 LV | 51.9 | 48.1 | D+3.8 | — | +3.5 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFirst round | Sep 10–Sep 12 | 1,352 LV | 48.4 | 43.8 | D+4.6 | — | +4.3 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPFinal round · in average | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 800 LV | 53 | 47 | D+6 | — | +5.7 | B | aarp.org ↗ |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPFirst round | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 800 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 | — | +6.7 | B | aarp.org ↗ |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPOther version | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 800 LV | 46 | 41 | D+5 | — | +4.7 | B | aarp.org ↗ |
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 20–Aug 23 | 1,495 LV | 50.6 | 49.4 | D+1.2 | — | +0.9 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 2–Aug 5 | 1,371 LV | 50.8 | 49.2 | D+1.6 | — | +1.3 | B− | bsky.app ↗ |
| Data for ProgressFinal round · in average | Jul 28–Aug 4 | 567 LV | 53 | 47 | D+6 | — | +5.7 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Data for ProgressFirst round | Jul 28–Aug 4 | 578 LV | 49 | 43 | D+6 | — | +5.7 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Data for ProgressOther version | Jul 28–Aug 4 | 605 LV | 47 | 41 | D+6 | — | +5.7 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 15–Jun 29 | 593 LV | 45.06 | 47.47 | R+2.4 | — | −2.7 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFinal round · in average | Mar 19–Mar 22 | 1,340 RV | 52.4 | 47.6 | D+4.8 | — | +4.5 | B− | bsky.app ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for DSCCD-sponsored | Jan 16–Jan 17 | 611 RV | 49 | 47 | D+2 | — | +1.7 | B+ | politico.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey Research | Jan 8–Jan 11 | 1,681 LV | 48 | 46.4 | D+1.6 | — | +1.3 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| Data for Progress | Oct 17–Oct 23 | 823 RV | 46 | 45 | D+1 | — | +0.7 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Alaska Survey Research | Oct 10–Oct 15 | 1,708 LV | 47.7 | 45.9 | D+1.8 | — | +1.5 | B− | politico.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey Research | Jul 29–Aug 1 | 1,613 LV | 42.5 | 46.7 | R+4.2 | — | −4.5 | B− | documentcloud.org ↗ |
| Data for Progress | Jul 21–Jul 27 | 678 LV | 45 | 46 | R+1 | — | −1.3 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Mary Peltola
- 57%
- Dan S. Sullivan
- 43%
- Projected margin
- D+0.9
The candidates
Former U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district (2022–2025)Dan S. Sullivan (R)
Incumbent U.S. senator
Also on the ballot: Gerald Heikes (Republican), 2.3%; Dan J. Sullivan (Nonpartisan), 1.7%
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | D+19.9 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Alaska Division of Elections (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 12:47 PM ET