Alaska Governor
Governor · Alaska
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads Bernadette Wilson by 19.9 points. The race has not been called.
Top-four primaryRanked-choice voting
Source: Alaska Division of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Kreiss-Tomkins compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 30 of 30 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Sitka City and Borough, +30.4 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 22 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Kreiss-Tomkins ahead by 7.2. Kreiss-Tomkins leads by 19.9: a 12.7-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Kreiss-Tomkins ahead
- Poll with Wilson ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Kreiss-Tomkins | Wilson | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 28–Nov 1 | 522 LV | 51.5 | 34 | D+17.5 | D+6.7 | −2.4 | A | pollstergraph.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityFirst round | Oct 23–Oct 30 | 610 LV | 41.7 | 25 | D+16.7 | — | −3.2 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityFinal round · in average | Oct 23–Oct 30 | 549 LV | 54.1 | 45.9 | D+8.2 | D+7.6 | −11.7 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityOther version | Oct 23–Oct 30 | 527 LV | 50.4 | 30.7 | D+19.7 | — | −0.2 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFinal round · in average | Oct 23–Oct 25 | 1,068 LV | 53.4 | 46.6 | D+6.8 | D+6.5 | −13.1 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFirst round | Oct 23–Oct 25 | 1,068 LV | 50.7 | 30.6 | D+20.1 | — | +0.2 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFirst round | Oct 15–Oct 18 | 1,568 LV | 50 | 30 | D+20 | — | +0.1 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFinal round · in average | Oct 15–Oct 18 | 1,568 LV | 55 | 45 | D+10 | D+9.5 | −9.9 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| Data for ProgressFirst round | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 660 LV | 49 | 29 | D+20 | — | +0.1 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Data for ProgressFinal round · in average | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 629 LV | 53 | 47 | D+6 | D+5.0 | −13.9 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Data for ProgressOther version | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 694 LV | 46 | 28 | D+18 | — | −1.9 | B | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFirst round | Oct 1–Oct 3 | 1,512 LV | 48 | 27 | D+21 | — | +1.1 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| Alaska Survey ResearchFinal round · in average | Oct 1–Oct 3 | 1,512 LV | 54 | 46 | D+8 | D+7.7 | −11.9 | B− | x.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityFirst round | Sep 24–Oct 1 | 448 LV | 46.39 | 23.56 | D+22.8 | — | +2.9 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityFinal round · in average | Sep 24–Oct 1 | 431 LV | 51.57 | 48.42 | D+3.1 | — | −16.8 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityOther version | Sep 24–Oct 1 | 504 LV | 40.24 | 20.07 | D+20.2 | — | +0.3 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| co/efficient | Sep 14–Sep 17 | 799 LV | 43 | 20 | D+23 | — | +3.1 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPFirst round | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 800 LV | 49 | 25 | D+24 | — | +4.1 | B | aarp.org ↗ |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPFinal round · in average | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 800 LV | 55 | 45 | D+10 | — | −9.9 | B | aarp.org ↗ |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPOther version | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 800 LV | 40 | 20 | D+20 | — | +0.1 | B | aarp.org ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
- 83%
- Bernadette Wilson
- 17%
- Projected margin
- D+5.6
The candidates
Also on this ballot here
| U.S. Senate | D+0.3 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Alaska Division of Elections (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 12:47 PM ET