Texas's 2nd District
U.S. House · Texas
Steve Toth held the seat for Republicans, winning by 2.0 points over Shaun Finnie.
Source: Texas Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC.Against Toth | $1.8M | |
| ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PACFor Toth | $445.2K | |
| Freedom Caucus FundFor Toth | $50.1K | |
| SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOMFor Toth | $36.4K | |
| American Liberty Foundation PACFor Toth | $26.8K | |
| Turning Point PACFor Toth | $23.6K | |
| AMERICAN JOBS AND GROWTH PACAgainst Finnie | $22.5K | |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDFor Toth | $6.3K | |
| Montgomery County First PACFor Toth | $360 |
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Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Toth ahead by 11.5. Toth won by 2.0: a 9.5-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Finnie ahead
- Poll with Toth ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Finnie | Toth | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research for Shaun Finnie's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 29–Oct 4 | 501 LV | 37 | 46 | R+9 | R+11.5 | −7.0 | C | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 4, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Shaun Finnie
- 3%
- Steve Toth
- 97%
- Projected margin
- R+12.0