Texas's 38th District
U.S. House · Texas
Jon Bonck held the seat for Republicans, winning by 4.2 points over Melissa McDonough.
Source: Texas Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBSFor Bonck | $348.4K | |
| Club for Growth ActionFor Bonck | $279.6K | |
| FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC.Against Bonck | $26.8K | |
| A BETTER MAJORITY PACAgainst Bonck | $17.2K | |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDFor Bonck | $6.3K | |
| NRA VICTORY FUND, INC.For Bonck | $3.2K | |
| American Principles Project PACAgainst McDonough | $2.9K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Melissa McDonough
- 5%
- Jon Bonck
- 95%
- Projected margin
- R+12.4
The candidates
Mortgage broker (previously ran in the 2nd district)Melissa McDonough (D)
Realtor and nominee for this district in 2024
Also on the ballot: Alex McMenemy (Green), 1.1%