99chambers
Called Nov 4Unofficial results

New Hampshire Governor

Governor · New Hampshire

Kelly Ayotte won re-election by 4.4 points over Cinde Warmington.

Two-year governor's term

Kelly AyotteRepublican · winner · incumbent
51.4%324,846
Cinde WarmingtonDemocrat
47.0%296,773
Stephen VilleeLibertarian
1.5%9,629
Write-inNonpartisan
0.1%733
92% of the expected vote counted · 631,981 votes

Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 2:10 AM ET

Where the race moved

Against the 2024 presidential vote

Every county, 2024 to 2026

Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Warmington compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 1 of 10 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Rockingham, −9.3 points.

R+30R+30R+15R+15EvenEvenD+15D+15D+30D+30Moved toward Democrats ↑↓ Moved toward RepublicansHillsboroughRockinghamMerrimackStraffordGraftonCheshire2024 presidential margin →2026 margin →

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

The seat's recent races

EvenR+31.82020 GovernorR+15.62022 GovernorR+9.32024 GovernorD+2.82024 Pres.R+4.42026 Governor

Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)

By county

CountyShareMarginShift
HillsboroughR+4.8−7.7
RockinghamR+11.7−9.2
MerrimackD+0.5−4.6
StraffordD+8.5−3.5
GraftonD+12.0−7.7
CheshireD+10.1+0.3
BelknapR+25.2−12.3
CarrollR+13.0−11.3
Show 2 more
SullivanR+6.1−5.4
CoosR+22.6−9.0

Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

Polls against the result

The final average had Ayotte ahead by 7.7. Ayotte won by 4.4: a 3.3-point miss toward Republicans.

R+20EvenD+20Result R+4.4Final average R+7.7Apr 1May 1Jun 1Jul 1Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Nov 3
  • Poll with Warmington ahead
  • Poll with Ayotte ahead
  • Final polling average
  • Result
PollsterDatesSampleWarmingtonAyotteMarginAdjustedMiss vs resultGradeRelease
AtlasIntelOct 28–Nov 11,057 LV43.849.7R+5.9R+9.1−1.5Apollstergraph.com ↗
University of New HampshireOct 27–Oct 312,026 LV4848EvenR+1.8+4.4Cscholars.unh.edu ↗
National Public Affairs for God, Family, & Country PACR-sponsoredOct 25–Oct 29800 LV4352R+9R+7.3−4.6—backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗
St. AnselmOct 19–Oct 201,672 LV4250R+8R+9.5−3.6A+anselm.edu ↗
UMass LowellOct 2–Oct 19600 LV4248R+6R+9.8−1.6Buml.edu ↗
National Public Affairs for God, Family, & Country PACR-sponsoredOct 8–Oct 12600 LV3854R+16—−11.6—backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗
YouGovSep 28–Oct 51,520 LV4049R+9—−4.6Bd3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
St. Anselm for AARPSep 28–Sep 291,042 LV4552R+7R+8.0−2.6A+aarp.org ↗
The New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 15–Sep 22613 LV40.8452.31R+11.5—−7.1Anytimes.com ↗
University of New HampshireSep 17–Sep 211,407 LV4347R+4—+0.4Cscholars.unh.edu ↗
co/efficientSep 9–Sep 11958 LV3455R+21—−16.6B+battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗
University of New Hampshire for 7NewsAug 20–Aug 241,878 LV3949R+10—−5.6Cscholars.unh.edu ↗
St. AnselmAug 17–Aug 181,411 LV3849R+11—−6.6A+anselm.edu ↗
St. AnselmJun 24–Jun 251,614 RV3745R+8—−3.6A+anselm.edu ↗
University of New HampshireJun 18–Jun 232,221 LV3944R+5—−0.6Cscholars.unh.edu ↗
University of New HampshireApr 17–Apr 211,117 LV3947R+8—−3.6Cscholars.unh.edu ↗
St. AnselmMain question · in averageMar 16–Mar 181,491 RV3946R+7—−2.6A+anselm.edu ↗
St. Anselmfield: Kiper, AyotteMar 16–Mar 181,491 RV—45———A+anselm.edu ↗
yes. every kid. foundation.Jan 28–Jan 29563 LV—47————yeseverykid.com ↗
University of New HampshireJan 15–Jan 192,031 LV—50———Cscholars.unh.edu ↗

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).

Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026

Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)

Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.

Cinde Warmington
9%
Kelly Ayotte
91%
Projected margin
R+7.5
How the forecast works →

The candidates

Kelly Ayotte (R)
Incumbent governor (2025–present)Cinde Warmington (D)
Former New Hampshire Executive Councilor (2021–2025) and candidate for governor in 2024

Also on the ballot: Stephen Villee (Libertarian), 1.5%; Write-in (Nonpartisan), 0.1%

Also on this ballot here

U.S. SenateD+13.7

Results within this state. Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 2:10 AM ET

Changes to this page

  • · Race called for Ayotte.