U.S. Senate in New Hampshire
U.S. Senate · New Hampshire
Chris Pappas held the seat for Democrats, winning by 13.7 points over John E. Sununu.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 2:10 AM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Pappas compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 10 of 10 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Strafford, +13.7 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 2 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| WinSenateFor Pappas, against Sununu | $18.9M | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Sununu, against Pappas | $14.2M | |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE ActionFor Sununu, against Pappas | $12.7M | |
| American Center PACAgainst Sununu | $2M | |
| The Sentinel Action FundAgainst Pappas | $1.5M | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Sununu | $1.4M | |
| America PACFor Sununu, against Pappas | $1M | |
| Protect Freedom Political Action CommitteeFor Sununu | $946.8K | |
| CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEEFor Pappas | $800K | |
| AB PACFor Pappas | $543.1K | |
| Turning Point PACFor Sununu | $243K | |
| AMERICAS CREDIT UNIONSFor Pappas | $222.8K |
Show 4 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Pappas ahead by 7.3. Pappas won by 13.7: a 6.4-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Pappas ahead
- Poll with Sununu ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Pappas | Sununu | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 28–Nov 1 | 1,057 LV | 52.3 | 44.2 | D+8.1 | D+5.6 | −5.6 | A | pollstergraph.com ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | Oct 27–Oct 31 | 2,035 LV | 54 | 42 | D+12 | D+10.7 | −1.7 | C | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| National Public Affairs for God, Family, & Country PACR-sponsoredMain question · in average | Oct 25–Oct 29 | 800 LV | 51 | 46 | D+5 | D+7.3 | −8.7 | — | backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗ |
| National Public Affairs for God, Family, & Country PACR-sponsoredfield: Laplante, Pappas, Sununu | Oct 25–Oct 29 | 800 LV | 51 | 45 | D+6 | — | −7.7 | — | backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗ |
| St. Anselm | Oct 19–Oct 20 | 1,672 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 | D+6.7 | −6.7 | A+ | anselm.edu ↗ |
| UMass Lowell | Oct 2–Oct 19 | 600 LV | 48 | 41 | D+7 | D+4.7 | −6.7 | B | uml.edu ↗ |
| National Public Affairs for God, Family, & Country PACR-sponsoredMain question · in average | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 600 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 | — | −8.7 | — | backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗ |
| National Public Affairs for God, Family, & Country PACR-sponsoredfield: Laplante, Pappas, Sununu | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 600 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 | — | −6.7 | — | backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗ |
| YouGov | Sep 28–Oct 5 | 1,519 LV | 51 | 43 | D+8 | — | −5.7 | B | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| St. Anselm for AARP | Sep 28–Sep 29 | 1,042 LV | 51 | 44 | D+7 | D+6.6 | −6.7 | A+ | aarp.org ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Sep 26–Sep 27 | 1,082 LV | 47.4 | 40.5 | D+6.9 | — | −6.8 | B | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 15–Sep 22 | 613 LV | 49.82 | 44.82 | D+5 | — | −8.7 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 1,392 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8 | — | −5.7 | C | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 16–Sep 17 | 1,200 LV | 47.8 | 39.9 | D+7.9 | — | −5.8 | B | insideradvantage.com ↗ |
| co/efficient | Sep 9–Sep 11 | 958 LV | 46 | 46 | Even | — | −13.7 | B+ | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for National Republican Senatorial CommitteeR-sponsored | Aug 27–Aug 30 | 600 LV | 36 | 37 | R+1 | — | −14.7 | B+ | unionleader.com ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire for 7News | Aug 20–Aug 24 | 1,846 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 | — | −15.7 | C | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| St. Anselm | Aug 17–Aug 18 | 1,411 LV | 48 | 41 | D+7 | — | −6.7 | A+ | anselm.edu ↗ |
| Peak Insights for NRSCR-sponsored | Jun 24–Jun 27 | 500 LV | 43 | 42 | D+1 | — | −12.7 | — | nrsc.org ↗ |
| St. Anselm | Jun 24–Jun 25 | 1,614 RV | 47 | 41 | D+6 | — | −7.7 | A+ | anselm.edu ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 18–Jun 23 | 2,157 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | — | −10.7 | C | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 17–Apr 21 | 1,130 LV | 49 | 42 | D+7 | — | −6.7 | C | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| Emerson College | Mar 21–Mar 23 | 1,100 LV | 45.4 | 43.7 | D+1.7 | — | −12.0 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| St. Anselm | Mar 16–Mar 18 | 1,491 RV | 46 | 43 | D+3 | — | −10.7 | A+ | anselm.edu ↗ |
| yes. every kid. foundation. | Jan 28–Jan 29 | 563 LV | 45 | 41 | D+4 | — | −9.7 | — | yeseverykid.com ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | Jan 15–Jan 19 | 2,038 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 | — | −8.7 | C | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| Praecones Analytica for New Hampshire Journal | Dec 26–Dec 28 | 603 RV | 42.3 | 35.6 | D+6.7 | — | −7.0 | A− | nhjournal.com ↗ |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy for One NationR-sponsored | Dec 9–Dec 11 | 600 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | — | −10.7 | — | politico.com ↗ |
| St. Anselm | Nov 18–Nov 19 | 2,212 RV | 44 | 41 | D+3 | — | −10.7 | A+ | anselm.edu ↗ |
| co/efficient | Oct 9–Oct 13 | 1,034 LV | 45 | 42 | D+3 | — | −10.7 | B+ | coefficient.org ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 23 | 1,225 LV | 49 | 43 | D+6 | — | −7.7 | C | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| co/efficient | Sep 10–Sep 12 | 904 LV | 46 | 43 | D+3 | — | −10.7 | B+ | coefficient.org ↗ |
| 1892 Polling for One NationR-sponsored | Sep 2–Sep 4 | 500 LV | 45 | 43 | D+2 | — | −11.7 | B | punchbowl.news ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Chris Pappas
- 95%
- John E. Sununu
- 5%
- Projected margin
- D+8.7
The candidates
U.S. representative for NH-1 (2019–present)John E. Sununu (R)
Former U.S. senator from this seat (2003–2009)
Also on the ballot: Edmond Laplante (Constitution), 1.9%; Write-in (Nonpartisan), 0.1%
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | R+4.4 |
Results within this state. Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 2:10 AM ET
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Pappas.