California Governor
Governor · California
Xavier Becerra held the seat for Democrats, winning by 30.5 points over Steve Hilton.
Top-two primary
Source: California Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Becerra compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 54 of 58 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Kern, +20.3 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 50 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Becerra ahead by 25.7. Becerra won by 30.5: a 4.8-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Becerra ahead
- Poll with Hilton ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Becerra | Hilton | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | Oct 17–Oct 31 | 400 LV | 63.2 | 36.8 | D+26.4 | D+27.3 | −4.1 | A− | activote.net ↗ |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for Los Angeles Times | Oct 19–Oct 25 | 1,477 LV | 61 | 34 | D+27 | D+27.4 | −3.5 | C+ | latimes.com ↗ |
| SurveyUSA for KGTV-TV (California), San Diego Union-Tribune | Oct 19–Oct 24 | 799 LV | 54 | 32 | D+22 | D+25.5 | −8.5 | A | results.surveyusa.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Institute of California | Oct 16–Oct 22 | 1,086 LV | 61 | 37 | D+24 | D+24.3 | −6.5 | B | ppic.org ↗ |
| McLaughlin & Associates for California Post | Oct 17–Oct 20 | 800 LV | 55 | 39.3 | D+15.7 | D+21.5 | −14.8 | C− | nypost.com ↗ |
| Emerson College | Oct 17–Oct 19 | 1,000 LV | 63.63 | 36.37 | D+27.3 | D+27.8 | −3.2 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| ActiVote | Sep 24–Oct 16 | 400 LV | 62.8 | 37.2 | D+25.6 | — | −4.9 | A− | activote.net ↗ |
| TrueDot for Politico, UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research | Oct 9–Oct 14 | 909 LV | 55 | 35 | D+20 | — | −10.5 | — | politico.com ↗ |
| Manhattan Institute | Sep 24–Oct 1 | 1,000 LV | 57 | 39 | D+18 | — | −12.5 | — | manhattan.institute ↗ |
| IVC Media for Independent Voter Project | Sep 23–Sep 28 | 2,906 LV | 48 | 38 | D+10 | — | −20.5 | — | ivn.us ↗ |
| SurveyUSA for ABC 10 News, KGTV-TV (California), San Diego Union-Tribune | Sep 15–Sep 20 | 742 LV | 55 | 33 | D+22 | — | −8.5 | A | 10news.com ↗ |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for Los Angeles Times | Sep 15–Sep 20 | 4,512 LV | 58 | 33 | D+25 | — | −5.5 | C+ | latimes.com ↗ |
| TrueDot for Politico, UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion ResearchMain question | Sep 8–Sep 14 | 2,418 RV | 48 | 34 | D+14 | — | −16.5 | — | politico.com ↗ |
| TrueDot for Politico, UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion ResearchMain question · in average | Sep 8–Sep 14 | 1,983 LV | 54 | 36 | D+18 | — | −12.5 | — | politico.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Institute of California | Sep 4–Sep 10 | 1,098 LV | 60 | 38 | D+22 | — | −8.5 | B | ppic.org ↗ |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for Los Angeles Times | Aug 3–Aug 9 | 2,310 LV | 55 | 37 | D+18 | — | −12.5 | C+ | latimes.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Institute of California | Jun 29–Jul 6 | 1,003 LV | 61 | 36 | D+25 | — | −5.5 | B | ppic.org ↗ |
| Kreate Strategies | Jun 13–Jun 17 | 900 RV | 58 | 33 | D+25 | — | −5.5 | — | kstrat.net ↗ |
| University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly Pomona | May 23–May 26 | 735 LV | 58 | 35 | D+23 | — | −7.5 | — | politico.com ↗ |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for Los Angeles Times | May 19–May 24 | 8,578 RV | 52 | 31 | D+21 | — | −9.5 | C+ | latimes.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 31, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Xavier Becerra
- >99%
- Steve Hilton
- <1%
- Projected margin
- D+25.6
The candidates
Also on this ballot here
| Lieutenant Governor | D+30.3 |
| Attorney General | D+30.2 |
| Secretary of State | D+32.2 |
| Treasurer | D+30.6 |
| Comptroller | D+30.2 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: California Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET