99chambers
2026CalledUnofficial results

2026 election for California Secretary of State

Secretary of State · California

Shirley Weber (D) won re-election with 66.1% of the vote, defeating Don Wagner (R) by 32.2 points.

Top-two primary

Shirley WeberDemocrat · winner · incumbent
66.1%6,470,506
Don WagnerRepublican
33.9%3,320,379
9,790,885 votes

Source: California Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Where the race moved

Against the 2024 presidential vote

Every county, 2024 to 2026

Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Weber compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 57 of 58 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Kern, +22.6 points.

R+80R+80R+40R+40EvenEvenD+40D+40D+80D+80Moved toward Democrats ↑↓ Moved toward RepublicansLos AngelesOrangeSan DiegoSan BernardinoRiversideAlameda2024 presidential margin →2026 margin →

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

The seat's recent races

EvenD+28.92018D+20.82024 Pres.D+32.22026

Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)

By county

CountyShareMarginShift
Los AngelesD+47.6+14.7
OrangeD+7.8+5.1
San DiegoD+23.8+7.0
San BernardinoD+17.4+19.5
RiversideD+16.4+17.6
AlamedaD+62.7+9.1
Santa ClaraD+42.4+2.4
Contra CostaD+44.3+6.3
Show 50 more
SacramentoD+31.0+11.3
San FranciscoD+73.5+8.7
VenturaD+22.7+7.5
San MateoD+50.7+0.4
San JoaquinD+19.2+20.1
FresnoD+10.1+14.5
SolanoD+32.9+9.9
KernD+1.6+22.6
PlacerR+3.8+4.7
SonomaD+53.0+6.8
MontereyD+42.7+12.8
StanislausD+7.6+18.5
Santa BarbaraD+33.9+7.2
Santa CruzD+60.1+5.7
El DoradoR+10.0+2.0
San Luis ObispoD+16.0+5.1
TulareR+1.7+19.0
MarinD+61.0−3.0
ButteD+1.0+4.1
YoloD+47.8+11.5
MercedD+18.0+21.8
NevadaD+17.0+4.7
ShastaR+25.8+10.6
KingsR+3.5+19.4
MaderaR+1.5+19.3
ImperialD+32.4+33.1
HumboldtD+34.2+5.7
NapaD+41.6+6.6
TuolumneR+16.5+5.3
CalaverasR+25.0+3.1
AmadorR+25.7+2.0
MendocinoD+40.8+13.8
TehamaR+31.2+10.5
SutterR+11.9+19.5
SiskiyouR+14.6+4.7
San BenitoD+26.2+13.7
YubaR+11.6+14.2
LassenR+50.4+3.5
PlumasR+12.8+4.1
LakeD+13.7+15.0
MariposaR+16.9+3.9
InyoD+6.1+9.0
Del NorteR+4.9+11.4
GlennR+29.4+5.4
MonoD+25.4+5.1
TrinityR+3.5+5.9
ColusaR+7.1+21.1
ModocR+41.2+5.3
SierraR+20.6+3.6
AlpineD+35.9+3.9

Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

Polls against the result

The final average had Weber ahead by 14.1. Weber won by 32.2: a 18.1-point miss toward Republicans.

R+20EvenD+20Result D+32.2Final average D+14.1Oct 1Nov 3
  • Poll with Weber ahead
  • Poll with Wagner ahead
  • Final polling average
  • Result
PollsterDatesSampleWeberWagnerMarginAdjustedMiss vs resultGradeRelease
Independent Voter ProjectSep 23–Oct 22,906 LV4131D+10D+14.1−22.2—ivn.us ↗

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).

Source: Each poll's release, via Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 2, 2026

Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)

Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.

Shirley Weber
>99%
Don Wagner
<1%
Projected margin
D+28.3
How the forecast works →

The candidates

Shirley Weber (D)
Incumbent California Secretary of StateDon Wagner (R)
Orange County supervisor from the 3rd district (2019–present) and former state assemblymember from the 68th district (2010–2016)

Also on this ballot here

GovernorD+30.5
Lieutenant GovernorD+30.3
Attorney GeneralD+30.2
TreasurerD+30.6
ComptrollerD+30.2

Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: California Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET