Called Nov 3Unofficial results

U.S. Senate in Arkansas

Name: U.S. Senate in Arkansas
Start: 2026-11-03
Location: Arkansas

U.S. Senate · Arkansas

Tom Cotton won re-election by 11.8 points over Hallie Shoffner.

Tom CottonRepublican · winner · incumbent

54.3%480,800

Hallie ShoffnerDemocrat

42.4%375,823

Jeff WadlinLibertarian

3.3%29,488

90% of the expected vote counted · 886,111 votes

Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 2:10 AM ET

Where the race moved

Against the 2024 presidential vote

Every county, 2024 to 2026

Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Shoffner compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 75 of 75 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Mississippi, +24.7 points.

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

The seat's recent races

Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)

By county

CountyShareMarginShift

PulaskiD+35.2+13.0

BentonR+6.1+20.9

WashingtonD+17.5+24.2

SalineR+23.2+16.9

FaulknerR+12.4+19.9

SebastianR+19.3+18.3

GarlandR+23.0+13.3

CraigheadR+13.6+23.9

Show 67 more

LonokeR+36.6+17.1

WhiteR+45.9+15.3

JeffersonD+29.0+9.0

PopeR+34.4+17.8

CrawfordR+42.0+16.1

BaxterR+46.6+10.3

UnionR+19.5+14.0

BooneR+49.4+15.6

CrittendenD+18.7+16.5

MillerR+38.7+12.4

GreeneR+41.4+19.8

CleburneR+58.0+10.0

IndependenceR+43.2+16.3

CarrollR+12.9+18.8

Hot SpringR+36.0+16.1

MississippiR+6.9+24.7

JohnsonR+30.3+21.2

ConwayR+26.2+14.1

OuachitaR+8.4+10.6

ClarkR+5.7+14.7

ColumbiaR+22.2+14.3

LoganR+44.2+18.0

MarionR+49.4+10.9

Van BurenR+48.1+12.1

SharpR+50.7+11.9

PolkR+57.6+12.8

PoinsettR+43.4+20.1

GrantR+51.3+17.6

AshleyR+34.7+13.2

MadisonR+38.0+20.6

FranklinR+39.1+23.3

DrewR+18.7+15.2

St. FrancisD+12.6+11.8

YellR+39.9+20.8

IzardR+53.1+12.8

RandolphR+45.7+18.0

StoneR+48.9+12.8

CrossR+26.6+21.0

PhillipsD+23.5+10.2

HempsteadR+22.7+17.0

ArkansasR+27.4+16.7

LawrenceR+47.7+16.3

Little RiverR+42.6+11.7

FultonR+46.4+15.7

ClayR+46.7+14.9

JacksonR+29.9+18.8

PerryR+42.1+15.4

HowardR+30.2+16.5

SevierR+30.4+31.3

ChicotD+19.1+15.2

NewtonR+48.4+15.7

PikeR+56.7+16.5

DeshaD+12.3+17.1

MontgomeryR+52.5+10.7

SearcyR+52.8+19.4

ScottR+63.1+10.4

LincolnR+34.6+15.5

ClevelandR+56.7+10.9

PrairieR+52.6+13.1

BradleyR+23.2+15.9

NevadaR+28.4+11.3

MonroeR+2.0+13.7

LeeD+18.7+15.1

LafayetteR+24.3+14.0

WoodruffR+18.9+13.6

DallasR+18.8+10.7

CalhounR+45.9+16.0

Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

Money in this race

Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.

Hallie ShoffnerTom Cotton

$4M

Raised by the campaign

$7.1M

$3.3M

Spent by the campaign

$9.5M

$756.9K

Cash on hand

$5.1M

$45K

Outside spending for them

$590.8K

Outside spending against their opponent

$4.7M

$4.1M

All money helping them

$12.4M

Top funders

Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.

America OneFor Cotton, against Shoffner		$5.1M
ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICEAgainst Shoffner		$179.9K
Freedom Project USAFor Shoffner		$45K

Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.

Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET

Polls against the result

The final average had Cotton ahead by 12.8. Cotton won by 11.8: a 1.0-point miss toward Republicans.

Poll with Shoffner ahead
Poll with Cotton ahead
Final polling average
Result

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Shoffner	Cotton	Margin	Adjusted	Miss vs result	Grade	Release
GrayHouse for America One PoliciesR-sponsored	Oct 27–Oct 28	509 LV	39	55	R+16	R+12.7	−4.2	—	grayhouse.com ↗
Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics	Oct 8–Oct 13	709 LV	41	50	R+9	R+15.6	+2.8	A−	talkbusiness.net ↗
GrayHouse for America One PoliciesR-sponsored	Sep 30–Oct 4	550 LV	39	50	R+11	R+8.0	+0.8	—	x.com ↗
J.L. Partners	Aug 14–Aug 18	803 LV	35	51	R+16	R+11.8	−4.2	C+	jlpartners.com ↗
Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics	Aug 11–Aug 12	1,217 LV	47.4	44	D+3.4	R+0.9	+15.2	A−	talkbusiness.net ↗
2040 Strategy Group for Hallie Shoffner's campaignD-sponsored	Jul 17–Jul 25	586 LV	43	46	R+3	R+5.9	+8.8	—	arktimes.com ↗
GrayHouse for America One PoliciesR-sponsored	Feb 7–Feb 9	550 LV	36	58	R+22	—	−10.2	—	grayhouse.com ↗

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).

Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 28, 2026

Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)

Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.

Hallie Shoffner: 1%
Tom Cotton: 99%
Projected margin: R+15.3

How the forecast works →

The candidates

Tom Cotton (R)
Incumbent U.S. senator (2015–present)Hallie Shoffner (D)
Farmer and entrepreneur

Also on the ballot: Jeff Wadlin (Libertarian), 3.3%

Also on this ballot here

Governor	R+15.3
Attorney General	Unopposed
Secretary of State	R+16.3
Treasurer	Unopposed
Auditor	Unopposed

Results within this state. Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

Changes to this page

Nov 3 · Race called for Cotton.