Virginia's 1st District
U.S. House · Virginia
Shannon Taylor flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 2.6 points over Rob Wittman.
Source: Virginia Department of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPFor Taylor, against Wittman | $7.2M | |
| YOUR COMMUNITY PACAgainst Wittman | $1.8M | |
| LCV Victory FundFor Taylor, against Wittman | $1.5M | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Taylor | $733.4K | |
| Ready for the FightAgainst Wittman | $682.9K | |
| AB PACAgainst Wittman | $619K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Wittman | $478.9K | |
| COMMONWEALTH ACTION PACFor Wittman, against Taylor | $430.8K | |
| NRDC Action VotesAgainst Wittman | $300K | |
| SD 2026For Taylor | $267K | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.Against Taylor | $195.2K |
Show 3 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Wittman ahead by 0.4. Taylor won by 2.6: a 3.0-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Taylor ahead
- Poll with Wittman ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Taylor | Wittman | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting TeamD-sponsored | Oct 24–Oct 25 | 478 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1 | R+0.7 | −1.6 | — | virginiascope.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Oct 21–Oct 22 | 570 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 | R+0.2 | −1.6 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | Sep 23–Sep 28 | 609 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | D+1.3 | +1.4 | A− | washingtonpost.com ↗ |
| DCCC Targeting TeamD-sponsored | Sep 15–Sep 17 | 519 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1 | R+2.6 | −3.6 | — | virginiascope.com ↗ |
| Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives for AmericaR-sponsored | Mar 10–Mar 12 | 400 LV | 42 | 46 | R+4 | D+1.6 | −6.6 | B+ | punchbowl.news ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Aug 8–Aug 9 | 541 RV | 40 | 41 | R+1 | D+0.1 | −3.6 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 25, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Shannon Taylor
- 51%
- Rob Wittman
- 49%
- Projected margin
- D+0.1
The candidates
Henrico County commonwealth's attorney (2012–present) and candidate for attorney general in 2025Rob Wittman (R)
Incumbent U.S. representative
Also on the ballot: Write-in (Other party), 0.2%