Virginia's 5th District
U.S. House · Virginia
John McGuire won re-election by 2.1 points over Tom Perriello.
Source: Virginia Department of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| Our VirginiaFor Perriello, against McGuire | $2.8M | |
| American Patriots PACAgainst Perriello | $1.4M | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst McGuire | $538.3K | |
| Virginians for Conservative Leadership PACFor McGuire | $498.8K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For McGuire, against Perriello | $432.6K | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For McGuire | $212.1K | |
| RP PACAgainst McGuire | $53.9K | |
| VOTERS OF TOMORROW PACFor Perriello | $28.5K | |
| Building TogetherFor Perriello, against McGuire | $27.7K | |
| Guardian Super PACFor McGuire | $22.2K | |
| Voices For A Common Good PACFor Perriello | $5.5K | |
| Indivisible ActionFor Perriello | $1.9K |
Show 4 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had McGuire ahead by 7.8. McGuire won by 2.1: a 5.7-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Perriello ahead
- Poll with McGuire ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Perriello | McGuire | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | Sep 23–Sep 28 | 600 LV | 45 | 51 | R+6 | R+9.2 | −3.9 | A− | washingtonpost.com ↗ |
| Expedition Strategies for Tom Perriello's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 24 | 400 LV | 45 | 46 | R+1 | R+4.6 | +1.1 | — | punchbowl.news ↗ |
| Expedition Strategies for Tom Perriello's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 29–Aug 1 | 602 LV | 44 | 47 | R+3 | R+5.7 | −0.9 | — | tomperriello.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Sep 28, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Tom Perriello
- 15%
- John McGuire
- 85%
- Projected margin
- R+5.9
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeTom Perriello (D)
Former special envoy for Sudan (2024–2025), former U.S. representative (2009–2011)
Also on the ballot: Cooke C. Harvey (Independent), 1.6%; Write-in (Other party), 0.2%