Texas's 28th District
U.S. House · Texas
Henry Cuellar won re-election by 36.1 points over Tano Tijerina.
Source: Texas Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPFor Cuellar, against Tijerina | $5.5M | |
| BOLD AmericaAgainst Tijerina | $604.8K | |
| CHC BOLD PACAgainst Tijerina | $502.2K | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Tijerina, against Cuellar | $206.1K | |
| America PACFor Tijerina, against Cuellar | $148.6K | |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action CommitteeFor Cuellar | $49.7K | |
| AB PACFor Cuellar | $17.5K | |
| LUPE VOTES FEDERAL SUPER PAC, INC.For Cuellar | $16.5K | |
| Building TogetherFor Cuellar, against Tijerina | $9.9K | |
| MAGA INC.Against Cuellar | $3K | |
| NRA VICTORY FUND, INC.For Tijerina | $2.4K | |
| MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN ACTION INCFor Tijerina | $863 |
Show 4 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Cuellar ahead by 20.5. Cuellar won by 36.1: a 15.6-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Cuellar ahead
- Poll with Tijerina ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Cuellar | Tijerina | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting TeamD-sponsored | Oct 7–Oct 13 | 536 LV | 54 | 34 | D+20 | D+20.8 | −16.1 | — | dccc.org ↗ |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Aug 18–Aug 22 | 600 LV | 45 | 34 | D+11 | D+16.0 | −25.1 | — | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| Pulse Decision Science for Tano Tijerina's campaignR-sponsoredMain question · in average | Jun 21–Jun 23 | 400 LV | 33 | 42 | R+9 | R+5.8 | −45.1 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Pulse Decision Science for Tano Tijerina's campaignR-sponsoredOther version | Jun 21–Jun 23 | 400 LV | 38 | 46 | R+8 | — | −44.1 | — | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Henry Cuellar
- 94%
- Tano Tijerina
- 6%
- Projected margin
- D+13.4
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeTano Tijerina (R)
Webb County judge (2014–present)
Also on the ballot: Marlón Durán (Green), 4.6%