Texas's 15th District
U.S. House · Texas
Bobby Pulido flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 24.6 points over Monica De La Cruz.
Source: Texas Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Cruz, against Pulido | $7M | |
| HMPAgainst Cruz | $6.5M | |
| SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC.Against Pulido | $2M | |
| Project 218For Pulido | $1.8M | |
| BOLD AmericaAgainst Cruz | $1.5M | |
| BDA PACFor Pulido | $997.8K | |
| EDF Action VotesAgainst Cruz | $853.8K | |
| AB PACAgainst Cruz | $802.6K | |
| Somos PACFor Pulido | $724.6K | |
| America PACFor Cruz, against Pulido | $354K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Pulido | $199.5K | |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action CommitteeFor Cruz | $40.3K |
Show 4 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Pulido ahead by 8.7. Pulido won by 24.6: a 15.9-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Pulido ahead
- Poll with Cruz ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Pulido | Cruz | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center for San Antonio Express-News | Oct 13–Oct 16 | — LV | 51 | 44 | D+7 | D+8.3 | −17.6 | — | expressnews.com ↗ |
| Normington, Petts & Associates for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 400 LV | 54 | 41 | D+13 | D+10.8 | −11.6 | C+ | x.com ↗ |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Aug 18–Aug 22 | 700 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 | D+7.4 | −19.6 | — | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| Normington, Petts & Associates for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 27 | — LV | 51 | 45 | D+6 | D+4.7 | −18.6 | C+ | mailchi.mp ↗ |
| Applecart for WelcomePACD-sponsored | May 18–May 25 | 802 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 | R+0.8 | −22.6 | — | welcome.team ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Sep 10–Sep 11 | 533 RV | 38 | 41 | R+3 | R+2.6 | −27.6 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 16, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Bobby Pulido
- 60%
- Monica De La Cruz
- 40%
- Projected margin
- D+2.0