Texas's 23rd District
U.S. House · Texas
Katy Padilla Stout held the seat for Democrats, winning by 8.2 points over Brandon Herrera.
Source: Texas Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Herrera, against Stout | $1.8M | |
| HMPAgainst Herrera | $1.8M | |
| Ready for the FightAgainst Herrera | $1.3M | |
| Invest in Tomorrow Coalition PACAgainst Herrera | $875K | |
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUNDFor Herrera, against Stout | $847.5K | |
| America PACFor Herrera, against Stout | $335.1K | |
| Somos PACFor Stout | $309.5K | |
| AB PACFor Stout, against Herrera | $299.4K | |
| BOLD AmericaAgainst Herrera | $100.7K | |
| Texas Organizing Project PACFor Stout | $64.1K | |
| MAGA INC.Against Stout | $25.5K | |
| PARKSPACFor Stout | $10K |
Show 4 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Herrera ahead by 2.6. Stout won by 8.2: a 10.8-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Stout ahead
- Poll with Herrera ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Stout | Herrera | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Oct 5–Oct 7 | — LV | 46 | 46 | Even | R+2.6 | −8.2 | C+ | x.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Mar 10–Mar 11 | 521 RV | 40 | 42 | R+2 | R+1.9 | −10.2 | B+ | texastribune.org ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 7, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Katy Padilla Stout
- 44%
- Brandon Herrera
- 56%
- Projected margin
- R+1.1
The candidates
AttorneyBrandon Herrera (R)
Firearms manufacturer, YouTuber, and candidate for this district in 2024
Also on the ballot: Ben Mendoza (Independent), 3.9%