North Carolina's 1st District
U.S. House · North Carolina
Don Davis won re-election by 3.3 points over Laurie Buckhout.
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPFor Davis, against Buckhout | $11.3M | |
| SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC.Against Davis | $6M | |
| DMFI PACAgainst Buckhout | $5M | |
| WITH HONOR FUND III, INC.For Davis | $2.7M | |
| CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEEAgainst Buckhout | $945.4K | |
| AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION PACFor Buckhout | $720.4K | |
| RESTORATION OF AMERICA PACAgainst Davis | $672.3K | |
| Guardrails AllianceAgainst Buckhout | $612K | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Buckhout, against Davis | $523.9K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Buckhout | $521.7K | |
| AMERICAN MISSIONFor Buckhout | $509.1K | |
| ROLLING SEA ACTION FUNDFor Davis | $480K | |
| MAGA INC.Against Davis | $200K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Davis | $178.8K |
Show 6 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC independent expenditures; FEC campaign filingsUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Davis ahead by 6.5. Davis won by 3.3: a 3.2-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Davis ahead
- Poll with Buckhout ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Davis | Buckhout | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient for Laurie Buckhout's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 623 LV | 42 | 43 | R+1 | D+4.8 | −4.3 | B+ | politico.com ↗ |
| Neighborhood Research Corporation | Oct 1–Oct 6 | 303 LV | 51 | 41 | D+10 | D+11.1 | +6.7 | — | x.com ↗ |
| GQR for Don Davis's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 29–Oct 4 | 500 LV | 47 | 39 | D+8 | D+7.0 | +4.7 | C+ | drive.google.com ↗ |
| GBAO for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 500 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 | D+6.5 | +3.7 | C | x.com ↗ |
| GQR for Don Davis's campaignD-sponsored | Jun 22–Jun 28 | 500 LV | 45 | 41 | D+4 | D+3.4 | +0.7 | C+ | x.com ↗ |
| co/efficient for NRCCR-sponsored | Apr 25–Apr 29 | 842 LV | 41 | 41 | Even | D+7.2 | −3.3 | B+ | politico.com ↗ |
| GQR for Don Davis's campaignD-sponsored | Jan 29–Feb 2 | 500 LV | 42 | 39 | D+3 | — | −0.3 | C+ | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Don Davis
- 70%
- Laurie Buckhout
- 30%
- Projected margin
- D+3.2