North Carolina's 3rd District
U.S. House · North Carolina
Greg Murphy leads Raymond Smith Jr. by 0.10 points in the state's complete count, within recount range. The race is not called until the state certifies its results.
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION PACFor Murphy | $698.1K | |
| AB PACFor Smith, against Murphy | $338.5K | |
| Center Forward Initiative Inc (CFI)For Murphy | $181.1K | |
| HEALTHCARE FREEDOM SUPER PACFor Murphy | $23.8K | |
| Building TogetherFor Smith, against Murphy | $18.3K | |
| CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICA PACFor Murphy | $14.9K | |
| ADVANCE NORTH CAROLINAFor Smith | $6.6K | |
| Science Victory FundFor Smith, against Murphy | $1.4K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Murphy ahead by 5.3. Murphy leads by 0.1: a 5.2-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Smith ahead
- Poll with Murphy ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Smith | Murphy | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Jul 27–Aug 2 | — LV | 41 | 44 | R+3 | R+5.3 | −2.9 | A− | ms.now ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Aug 2, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Raymond Smith Jr.
- 14%
- Greg Murphy
- 86%
- Projected margin
- R+6.4
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeRaymond Smith Jr. (D)
Former state representative from the 21st district (2019–2023), and candidate for North Carolina's 4th Senate district in 2022 and nominee in 2024
Also on the ballot: Daniel Cavender (Libertarian), 1.2%