Montana's 1st District
U.S. House · Montana
Sam Forstag flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 3.6 points over Aaron Flint.
Source: Montana Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.Against Forstag | $7.6M | |
| HMPAgainst Flint | $3M | |
| MONTANA VOTERS PACFor Forstag, against Flint | $2.7M | |
| THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER PACFor Flint | $910.2K | |
| Guardrails AllianceAgainst Flint | $793.4K | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Flint | $688.1K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Forstag | $670.4K | |
| AMERICAN MISSIONFor Flint | $590.4K | |
| Leadership in ActionFor Flint | $543.8K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Flint, against Forstag | $518.8K | |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE ActionAgainst Forstag | $293.8K | |
| Montanans for Public LandsFor Forstag | $140.7K | |
| Montana Rural Voters (WORC)For Forstag | $127.6K | |
| MOVING MONTANA FORWARDFor Forstag | $109.1K |
Show 6 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Forstag ahead by 2.6. Forstag won by 3.6: a 1.0-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Forstag ahead
- Poll with Flint ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Forstag | Flint | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 31–Nov 1 | 311 LV | 48.8 | 48.5 | D+0.3 | D+0.9 | −3.3 | A+ | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Montana State University Billings | Oct 5–Oct 21 | 287 A | 49 | 32 | D+17 | D+16.7 | +13.4 | C | dailymontanan.com ↗ |
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 329 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | D+4.9 | +0.4 | A+ | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Oct 12–Oct 14 | — LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | D+1.9 | −0.6 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
| American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local | Sep 19–Sep 24 | 314 LV | 45.4 | 45.9 | R+0.5 | D+1.8 | −4.1 | C | montanarightnow.com ↗ |
| Impact Research for Sam Forstag's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 20–Sep 23 | 500 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | D+2.6 | −0.6 | C | mcusercontent.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for The BenchD-sponsored | Sep 9–Sep 10 | 536 RV | 45 | 43 | D+2 | — | −1.6 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
| Rutgers-Eagleton for Montana Free Press | Aug 27–Sep 7 | 375 RV | 41 | 42 | R+1 | — | −4.6 | C+ | montanafreepress.org ↗ |
| Upswing Research for 314 ActionD-sponsored | Apr 30–May 5 | 401 LV | 43 | 48 | R+5 | — | −8.6 | — | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Sam Forstag
- 53%
- Aaron Flint
- 47%
- Projected margin
- D+0.4
The candidates
Smokejumper and union leaderAaron Flint (R)
Veteran and radio host
Also on the ballot: Nick Sheedy (Libertarian), 2.9%