Montana's 2nd District
U.S. House · Montana
Troy Downing won re-election by 26.0 points over Brian Miller.
Source: Montana Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Other candidates' campaigns: Michael Eisenhauer $354.2K.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBSFor Downing | $150K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Downing ahead by 27.9. Downing won by 26.0: a 1.9-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Miller ahead
- Poll with Downing ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Miller | Downing | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings | Oct 5–Oct 21 | 350 A | 18 | 29 | R+11 | R+27.7 | +15.0 | C | dailymontanan.com ↗ |
| Rutgers-Eagleton for Montana Free Press | Aug 27–Sep 7 | — RV | 26 | 48 | R+22 | R+30.8 | +4.0 | C+ | montanafreepress.org ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 21, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Brian Miller
- <1%
- Troy Downing
- >99%
- Projected margin
- R+24.3
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeBrian Miller (D)
AttorneyMichael Eisenhauer (I)
Cardiologist
Also on the ballot: Patrick McCracken (Libertarian), 1.8%