Maine's 2nd District
U.S. House · Maine
Paul LePage leads Matthew Dunlap by 1.6 points with 96% of the expected vote counted. The race has not been called.
Ranked-choice voting for Congress
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPAgainst LePage | $9M | |
| SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC.Against Dunlap | $5.3M | |
| CFFE PACFor Dunlap | $1M | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For LePage, against Dunlap | $560K | |
| America PACFor LePage, against Dunlap | $451.6K | |
| National Nurses United for Patient ProtectionFor Dunlap | $435.6K | |
| Poverty To ProsperityFor LePage, against Dunlap | $290K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Dunlap | $133.5K | |
| MAGA INC.Against Dunlap | $105K | |
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTYFor LePage | $58.2K | |
| Building TogetherAgainst LePage | $13.3K | |
| MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN ACTION INCFor LePage | $3.2K | |
| Neighbor VoicesAgainst LePage | $210 |
Show 5 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had LePage ahead by 4.3. LePage leads by 1.6: a 2.7-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Dunlap ahead
- Poll with LePage ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Dunlap | LePage | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Oct 27–Oct 31 | 793 LV | 47 | 52 | R+5 | R+6.9 | −3.4 | C | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| Tulchin Research for Matt Dunlap's campaignD-sponsored | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 500 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | D+1.2 | +5.6 | A− | static01.nyt.com ↗ |
| Tulchin Research for Matt Dunlap's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 27–Sep 30 | 500 LV | 50 | 48 | D+2 | R+1.0 | +3.6 | A− | static01.nyt.com ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 622 LV | 51 | 45 | D+6 | D+4.6 | +7.6 | C | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| Impact Research for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 12 | 500 LV | 49 | 49 | Even | R+0.3 | +1.6 | C | x.com ↗ |
| DCCC Targeting TeamD-sponsored | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 621 LV | 48 | 49 | R+1 | R+1.8 | +0.6 | — | dccc.org ↗ |
| Tulchin Research for Matt Dunlap's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 11–Jul 16 | 600 LV | 49 | 48 | D+1 | — | +2.6 | A− | x.com ↗ |
| co/efficient for NRCCR-sponsored | Apr 26–Apr 28 | 918 LV | 40 | 50 | R+10 | — | −8.4 | B+ | politico.com ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 12–Feb 16 | 520 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1 | — | +0.6 | C | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 31, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Matthew Dunlap
- 40%
- Paul LePage
- 60%
- Projected margin
- R+1.4
The candidates
Former governor of Maine (2011–2019) and nominee for governor in 2022Matthew Dunlap (D)
State auditor of Maine (2021, 2022–present)
Also on the ballot: Write-in (Nonpartisan), 0.1%