Florida's 9th District
U.S. House · Florida
Darren Soto won re-election by 0.5 points over Dan Green.
Source: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPAgainst Green | $3M | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Green, against Soto | $1.1M | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Green, against Soto | $618.1K | |
| BOLD AmericaAgainst Green | $467K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Soto | $354K | |
| CHC BOLD PACAgainst Green | $248.2K | |
| 1199 SEIU United Healthcare Workers East Federal Political Action FundFor Soto | $87.5K | |
| SEIU COPE (Service Employees International Union Committee On Political Education)For Soto, against Green | $66.8K | |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action CommitteeFor Soto | $45.9K | |
| WINNING RIGHT PACAgainst Green | $37.4K | |
| MAGA INC.Against Soto | $31.1K | |
| Guardian Super PACFor Green | $22.2K |
Show 4 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Green ahead by 3.8. Soto won by 0.5: a 4.3-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Soto ahead
- Poll with Green ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Soto | Green | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA Polling for Darren Soto's campaignD-sponsored | Oct 13–Oct 15 | — LV | 44 | 44 | Even | R+3.9 | −0.5 | — | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| SEA Polling for Darren Soto's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 24–Aug 30 | 400 LV | 41 | 41 | Even | R+2.7 | −0.5 | — | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 15, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Darren Soto
- 25%
- Dan Green
- 75%
- Projected margin
- R+4.1