Florida's 16th District
U.S. House · Florida
Sydney Gruters held the seat for Republicans, winning by 4.2 points over Kelly Kirschner.
Source: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC.For Gruters, against Kirschner | $2.2M | |
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBSFor Gruters | $501.7K | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.Against Kirschner | $450K | |
| American Democracy ProjectAgainst Gruters | $203K | |
| WFW ACTION FUND INCFor Gruters | $93.1K | |
| FOUNDATIONS PACFor Gruters | $61.5K | |
| SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOMFor Gruters | $37.5K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Gruters | $21.1K | |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action CommitteeFor Gruters | $13.9K | |
| UnidosUS Action PACFor Kirschner | $1.8K |
Show 2 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Gruters ahead by 6.1. Gruters won by 4.2: a 1.9-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Kirschner ahead
- Poll with Gruters ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Kirschner | Gruters | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for American Democracy ProjectD-sponsored | Oct 1–Oct 2 | 530 RV | 39 | 43 | R+4 | R+6.4 | +0.2 | B+ | georgekruse.substack.com ↗ |
| SEA Polling for Kelly Kirschner's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 25–Aug 29 | 400 LV | 40 | 39 | D+1 | R+1.7 | +5.2 | — | kellykirschner.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 2, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Kelly Kirschner
- 19%
- Sydney Gruters
- 81%
- Projected margin
- R+5.2