Florida's 21st District
U.S. House · Florida
Brian Mast won re-election by 9.1 points over James Martin.
Source: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| VALOR PROJECTFor Mast | $316K | |
| Serving Florida PACAgainst Mast | $85.3K | |
| PAVC PACFor Mast | $83.4K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Mast ahead by 15.9. Mast won by 9.1: a 6.8-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Martin ahead
- Poll with Mast ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Martin | Mast | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upswing Research for James Martin's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 25 | 402 LV | 38 | 49 | R+11 | R+15.9 | −1.9 | — | tcpalm.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Sep 25, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- James Martin
- 3%
- Brian Mast
- 97%
- Projected margin
- R+12.2
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeJames Martin (D)
Lieutenant commander in the U.S. Coast Guard Reserve
Also on the ballot: Alexander Cooke (Nonpartisan), 1.3%; David Fabrikant (Other party), 0.0%