Florida's 14th District
U.S. House · Florida
Kathy Castor won re-election by 5.4 points over Mike Beltran.
Source: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.Against Castor | $12.4M | |
| HMPAgainst Beltran | $8.8M | |
| LCV Victory FundFor Castor, against Beltran | $2.9M | |
| EDF Action VotesAgainst Beltran | $1.8M | |
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUNDFor Beltran, against Castor | $877.3K | |
| Project 218For Castor | $538.4K | |
| CFFE PACFor Castor | $505.2K | |
| Invest in Tomorrow Coalition PACAgainst Beltran | $500K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Beltran, against Castor | $482.5K | |
| Club for Growth ActionAgainst Castor | $456K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Castor | $447.8K | |
| NRDC Action VotesAgainst Beltran | $355K |
Show 4 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Castor ahead by 6.3. Castor won by 5.4: a 0.9-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Castor ahead
- Poll with Beltran ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Castor | Beltran | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 315 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 | D+6.3 | −0.4 | A+ | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | Jul 14–Jul 15 | 469 LV | 46.2 | 37.5 | D+8.7 | D+9.0 | +3.3 | B | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 14, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Kathy Castor
- 71%
- Mike Beltran
- 29%
- Projected margin
- D+3.4
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeMike Beltran (R)
Former state representative from the 70th district (2018–2024)
Also on the ballot: Brian Lambert (Libertarian), 2.9%; Keith Varian (Other party), 0.0%; Salomon Hernandez (Other party), 0.0%