California's 6th District
U.S. House · California
Richard Pan flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 17.2 points over Kevin Kiley.
Top-two primary
Source: California Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| 314 Action FundFor Pan, against Kiley | $4.5M | |
| Center Forward Initiative Inc (CFI)For Kiley, against Pan | $986.9K | |
| INDEPENDENT PACFor Kiley, against Pan | $950K | |
| Health Care Saves LivesFor Pan, against Kiley | $724.4K | |
| A STRONG INNOVATION ECONOMY REQUIRES STRONG IP PROTECTIONFor Kiley | $312.6K | |
| COMMON SENSE FOR CALIFORNIAFor Kiley, against Pan | $272.7K | |
| American Federation of State County & Municipal Employees PEOPLEFor Pan, against Kiley | $217.1K | |
| Rolling Sea Action FundAgainst Pan | $50K | |
| SEIU COPE (Service Employees International Union Committee On Political Education)For Pan | $48.8K | |
| MAHA PACFor Kiley | $38.3K |
Show 2 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Pan ahead by 11.4. Pan won by 17.2: a 5.8-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Pan ahead
- Poll with Kiley ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Pan | Kiley | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab | Oct 22–Oct 26 | 439 LV | 55 | 43 | D+12 | D+12.6 | −5.2 | — | thedemocracylab.com ↗ |
| The Bullfinch Group for Independent Leadership Council | Sep 1–Sep 6 | 927 LV | 36.7 | 36.5 | D+0.2 | R+7.7 | −17.0 | C− | sacbee.com ↗ |
| The Bullfinch Group for Independent Center, Independent Leadership Council | Jul 13–Jul 16 | 741 LV | 39 | 35 | D+4 | R+1.7 | −13.2 | C− | independentcentervoice.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 26, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Richard Pan
- 98%
- Kevin Kiley
- 2%
- Projected margin
- D+12.8